Perhaps Russia could supply Cuba or Venezuela with ICBMs to really repeat history?

michael&alfia: there is no need to do so. Effectiveness of US ABM is questionable, to say the least. We, Russians, already have nice birds, those can evade ABM systems even on start. Problem for Poles is, if big show starts (I don't believe in it, though), it's basics of strategy to disable enemy's defence systems, no matter how weak they are. And, thinking in terms of big show, it's much cheaper just drop big baby ~100 MT on Poland for effect needed.

So all these bases, ABM and such are just chesspieces for some bargain. You know, that we know, that you know...

MICHAEL: You need to read the papers more. Russia is ALREADY supplying massive amounts of assault weapons and attack planes to Venezuela and just a approved a giant package of financial aid to Cuba. It also just inked a deal to provide missiles to Iran to protect its Russian-built nuclear technology from Irsaeli or US attack. So the ICBMS may very well be on the way, hence the need for Star Wars II.

UGLY: If the effectiveness is questionable, why is Russia so worried? And why did the USSR bankrupt itself trying to defeat the first one?

If the effectiveness is questionable, why is Russia so worried?

It's a show. If Poland agrees, ABM will be placed on her territory regardless of Russia's opinion, but, if Russia shows enough worry, she'll get some concession in other international affairs. Tit-for-tat.

And why did the USSR bankrupt itself trying to defeat the first one?

Nice myth. SDI hadn't a part in USSR failing. Our scientists quite quickly evaluated real danger of SDI which was next-to-nothing. Myth about Soviet fear of SDI is useable for lobbying current projects, no more.

UGLY: So, Russia won't increase its military spending as a result of the new US program? And if Soviet military spending wasn't raised to a ghastly 25% or more of GDP because of SDI, then why WAS it raised so high? Was military spending the cause of Soviet bankruptcy, or do you feel it had another cause?

LR: I don't think amount of Russian military spending will depend somehow of US ABShield program. This program is clearly not top priority threat.

Soviet military spending was *relatively* so high because Soviet governement tried to maintain a parity with NATO with much lesser resources and with flawed metodics (see lower).

Soviet military spending wasn't the cause of 'Soviet bankruptcy', Soviet failing was a result of first specifically communist crisis in the history of mankind. To say shortly, it was a crisis of command&control, caused by irresponsibility of post-Stalin party. Financial shortage couldn't have cause failing of USSR - USSR endured much worse conditions.

UGLY: Suppose that America and Russia enter a second full-scale cold war, each trying to destroy the other without resorting to direct military confrontation. Do you think Russia's performance in Cold War II will be better than the USSR's peformance in Cold War I? In other words, does Russia now have better "command and control" in a more decentralized state than the USSR did? If so, is this enough to overcome Russia's vast economic inferiority and its lack of seriously credible allies?

SDI installed in Greenland must be a frustration to Putin.

Poland is a vunerable target while Greenland is fairly barren, while costal town residents would beg to disagree.

No doubt there are some range and time questions with Greenland, yet it is important.

LR: I don't know, question is too complex. Today's regime obviously can not withstand such confrontation, that's why Putin will do anything to avoid it. You may speak as much as you want about evil imperial hopes of Putin&Co, but he is just businessman, and not of very good sort. He wants to sell to the West everything he has power to grab and after his retire live somewhere in Europe like petite bourgois.

If 'second full-scale cold war' will erupt when power in Russia will belong to people with my point of view (or myself, yes :-)) - well, I don't think that US can win it. We'll (not Putin) learned much from SU mistakes.

tonyguitar: well, main idea of anything looking like credible ABM is to knock out ICBM on active piece of trajectory, because warheads are almost unvulnerable, and attack on them is horribly cost-uneffective. So, questions of range and time are main questions and Greenland is out of option. Moreover, Earth is round, and Russia can build quite powerful birds. :-)

UGLY: "Do anything to avoid it?"
Have you gone mad? He's supplying huge quantities of assault weapons and attack aircraft to Venezuela, just inked a deal for huge financial support to Cuba, is sending nuke technology and weapons to protect it to Iran and financial aid to Hamas. What's more, Putin recently kicked the West out of the Shtokman project. Putin doing all he can to incite cold war. You ought to get out of the house a bit more, your classic inability to perceive the errors of your government is fully Neo-Soviet, and Russia will surely go the way of the USSR.

LR: Putin gave up intelligence base at Lurdes (Cuba) and naval base at Kamran (Viet Nam). Putin helped to organize military invasion in Afghanistan, issued agreement from various -stans to hold US military bases there. If it is truth he allowed free pass for NATO supplies over Russian territory in 2001-2002 then he should be hanged for treason. Putin is not supporting people of Transdniester, who democratically chosed to align with Russia and - wanna bet? - he'll stay silent about upcoming referendum in South Ossetia. Those are his *real* deeds, those which meant something in terms of geopolitics.

And what are you speaking of? Business deals? Putin not *supplying* Chavez, he *selling* things to him. Military nuke technology sent to Iran is your conjecture; AA missiles are the same trade, not the help to ally. Shtokman project - business again, just one business-group prevailed over other in the Kremlin, and old bribes... errr, incentives from US have been forgotten. Financial aid to Hamas is sent not by Putin alone, because Hamas is recognized as a legal political entity, as Cuba is (and let's wait and see what Putin wants from Castro and his successors. I think, it is nickel, but I may be wrong). You forgot the New Year row with Free Independent Ukraine, which was all over money, but whole West jumped and screamed about imperial ambitions and 'new cold war'. Also you forgot about baltic pipeline, which is all over money too...

If it is all recognized by US as an 'inciting of cold war', then US are gone completely mad, not I.

UGLY: I see your problem. You think that Russians get to decide what sort of behavior constitutes cold war avoidance, but that's not the case. You've been spending too much time reading commie propaganda. The Americans get to decide when they've been provoked, and they've decided. Check out Anders Aslund in the Weekly Standard if you doubt it. Does America get to decide whether Russia has a "good reason" to invade Chechnya? You can either satisfy America or fight a cold war and lose, simple as that. Seems you've made your choice.

LR: So we'll have to defend ourselves against paranoids, who might be provoked by other's breath, or submit ourselves to whims of nation of such paranoids? Either way isn't looking good, but I'll choose a fight (as any man, Russian or American, should in such situation).

And since when your Commander-In-Chief changed his name for 'Anders Aslund' and started to work for Weekly Standard? Looking at his idiotic face I have no doubts he is capaple for doing such thing, but why?

UGLY: You won't defend yourselves. You'll fight and lose, just like the last time.