La Russophobe has moved!

You should be automatically redirected in 6 seconds. If not, visit
http://larussophobe.wordpress.com
and update your bookmarks.

Friday, May 12, 2006

Is Russia Invading Belarus?

Kommersant reports that it has learned Russia's increasing of oil prices to Belarus is the first step in a "hostile takeover" of the country using economic leverage, designed to give President Putin "room to manoever" when his offical term ends in 2008. The paper states: "According to a Kremlin source, 'the only way for Belarus to receive gas at domestic Russian prices is to become part of Russia.' Analysts in Moscow see a political aspect to the onslaught against Belarus. Vladimir Putin, as the head of a new state, will have broad possibilities for political maneuvering in 2008 when his constitutional term ends. Kommersant has learned that the present organizations of Russian-Belarusian integration are being used for that purpose as well."

4 comments:

Yahor said...

I belive thay have a plan for invading of Belarus. But I don't think Lukashenko will be agree to unification. He love the power more of all.

Yahor said...

I belive thay have a plan for invading of Belarus. But I don't think Lukashenko will be agree to unification. He love the power most of all.

Yahor said...

We discussed this topic some weeks ago with Vilhelm Konnander:

http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=19791491&postID=114614711809602381

La Russophobe said...

Yahor: There was a theory that Putin would become the president of the new Belarus-Russia union, and that Lukashenko would be his vice president and successor. It seems quite possible that, as you say, Lukashenko has changed his mind about that and won't play second fiddle, especially since once a union occurred he would have no guarantee that Putin would keep his word (of course, the KGB is famous for lying).

Of course, the invasion plan could backfire if it ends up driving Belarus into the Western camp as Ukraine and Georgia have been driven there before Russia can consolidate its authority.

I'd be interested to know: If given a choice, do you think Belarussians would prefer to stand with Russia against the West or with the West against Russia?