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Wednesday, November 22, 2006

What will Russia,إن شاء الله, look like in 2050?

What will Russia look like in the year 2050?

The population will have declined to under 100 million. The tiny island nation of Japan will have a far larger population than Russia, the world's largest land mass.

At least 10% of the population will be infected with AIDS.

Russia will also, إن شاء الله (Insha'Allah, with the will of God), be a Muslim country. While Russia's overall birthrate is just 1.28 and Moscow's is even lower at 1.1 children per woman (2.1 is needed just for population maintenance), the fertility rate for Tatars living in Moscow is six children per woman, while the Chechen and Ingush communities are averaging 10 children per woman. Russia's Muslim population has increased by 40 percent since 1989, to about 25 million, and by 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript army and by 2020 one-fifth of the population. Combined with the fact that hundreds of thousands of Muslims from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have been flocking to Russia in search of work, as well as short Slavic lifespans (especially men) it is expected that the Russian population will be majority-Muslim by 2050.

The only way Russia won't be Muslim is if it starts building extermination camps or magically changes the Slavic ability to reproduce. Given the difficulty of the latter, combined with increasingly blatant and even state-approved racism, the former isn't out of the question. The Washington Times reports: "'Russia is historically a Slavic, Orthodox Christian land, and we need to make sure it stays that way,' said Alexander Belov, the head of the Movement Against Illegal Immigration, an increasingly powerful lobby that has organized dozens of rallies in recent months."


Es said...

You've mixed the proper Russia with the Empire. The present Empire i.e. Federation still contains many captive nations which struggle for survival (Christian Finno-Ugrs) or waken after centuries of Russification (not Muslims only, e.g. Buddhist Kalmyks, Buryats and Tuvans too).
Look on the ethnic composition. We can find heavy Russification in the autonomous republics and districts as Russians constitute 39.9% there and homogenous Russia proper with Russian percentage 88.7%.
As for Moscow it's less Russian indeed (Russian percentage 84.8%), but why? Because of higher presence of non-Muslim groups like Ukrainians (2.4% in Moscow, 2.1% in Russia proper) and Armenians (1.2% to 0.9%) and ones with unknown ethnicity (4.0% to 1.2%). The largest supposedly Muslim group are Tartars, but they are less commmon in Moscow then elsewhere (1.6% to 1.8%).

La Russophobe said...

RITVARS: Thanks for the interesting comment! What is the explanation for what you call "heavy russification in the autonomous republics"? When you say Moscow is "less Russian" do you mean less Slavic or less Russian citizenship? Can you point us to any Internet resources on these topics?

Es said...

You know, Tatarstan is supposed to be the land of Tartars, Bashkortostan - the land of Bashkirs etc. Nonetheless non-native Russians make 2/5 of inhabitants in an average autonomous republic or district. This is evidence of quite heavy Russification ongoing for centuries.
I meant Moscow is less Russian than the rest of Russia in terms of lower percentage of ethnic Russians.
The prime resource for various demographic data on Russia is Census 2002 results:

nikolay / said...

You forgot the initial alif. It's ان شاء الله. It'll be better for you to altogether quit speaking in tongues.

La Russophobe said...

NIKOLAY: Is that the best criticism you can make of my piece? Lame. Your jealousy is showing. But I'm glad to see you are mastering Arabic, it'll come in quite handy when Russia becomes Muslim! PS: Generally speaking, if you want to show how clever you are, it's a good idea to (a) confirm that I actually care whether my Arabic is correct and (b) post a link to support your claim with source material. Otherwise, you just look like a chimp.

RITVARS: Why are Russians moving into those places? Is it because Russia itself is becoming less attractive? Thanks for the link!

nikolay / said...

Well, I think it's a good idea to be literate, or at least know the limits of your literacy, before passing judgements on other countries. A link? Don't be silly. This is like misspelling c'est la vie. If you're not sure how to write it, don't.

And that's the best criticism I care to make.

La Russophobe said...

NIKOLAY: That's a remarkably ignorant, caveman attitude. You're saying that if a person can't speak a foreign language perfectly, they shouldn't try to communicate at all. Typically ignorant neo-Soviet claptrap, explains why the Russian language is going exinct and neatly encapsulates Russian xenophobia. And I must say I'm not suprised to see that you can't even document your point. So, so lame. And the same for your pathetic attempt to parse the grammar of a post rather than addressing its substance, a classic Soviet propaganda ploy. You fail to realize that we in the West got wise to such sillyness a long time ago and now it just amuses us.

La Russophobe said...

To lead the ape-man Nikolay by example, our Arabic script for "Insha'Allah" was taken from Wikipedia ('Allah), which writes:

"Insha'Allah (إن شاء الله) is an Arabic term evoked by Muslims to indicate hope for an aforementioned event to occur in the future. The phrase translates into English as "If it is God's will".

When cutting and pasting we left out the thing that looks like an exclamation point at the end (how this gets to be an "initial" anything is anyone's guess). Nikolay thinks this means we're ignorant slobs not entitled to use foreign languages. We think his comment says just about all there is to say about him.

But, nonetheless, in her constant struggle to achieve perfection, La Russophobe is glad to correct the error and has done so.

17 ugly raccoons said...

When cutting and pasting we left out the thing that looks like an exclamation point at the end

I wonder how many of you were doing such simple operation on the same keyboard simultaneously? Or it is just megalomania?

nikolay / said...

how this gets to be an "initial" anything is anyone's guess).

Just when I thought it doesn't get any funnier than your friend Penny reckoning that 400 years have passed since 1787.

So you don't know?

I mean... you're not making fun of me, right?

La Russophobe said...

UGLY: I think it's another English issue for you. "Cutting and pasting" doesn't imply it was done simultaneously. Or maybe you were just drunk (again) when you wrote that?

NIKOLAY: I guess you are referring to the fact that the language is read from right to left. But what you don't understand is that I don't read from right to left, so it's not "initial" to me. And you don't understand that your ridiculous comments about grammar merely confirm the substantive accuracy of the post, which is all I care about. I direct you to the bottom of this blog where it is written: "It's a man with very little imagination who can only spell a word one way." You, like all Russophiles, are such a man.