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Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Russia's Next Collapse Will be its Last

Writing in the Moscow Times Richard Lourie, the author of A Hatred For Tulips and Sakharov: A Biography, says that the next time Russia collapses will be the last time Russia collapses. Having already crumbled twice in a century, one must question the rationality of Russians favoring Vladimir Putin with such overwhelming support. History shows that they simply can't be that sure he won't bring the whole country once again to its knees.

Though the Constitution does not say it in so many words, the main task of the Russian president is to keep the country from falling apart. In taking the oath of office, the president swears to protect "the security and integrity of the state."

Russia has collapsed twice in the less than a 100 years, in 1917 and again in 1991, and there is no assurance that it won't happen again. True, it has come back strong each time -- first as the Soviet Union and now as the Russian Federation -- but there are only so many times you can pull off that trick. The next collapse will surely be the last.

Though flush with cash and newfound power, Russia's leadership remains traumatized by the sinking of the Soviet Union. The real shock was how quick and easy it was. That shock and the fear of losing control explain much of the country's behavior both internationally and domestically -- for example, in the recent managed State Duma and presidential elections.

Speculation on who will be calling the shots after Dmitry Medvedev is sworn in is interesting, inevitable and irrelevant -- at least as far as the nature of the challenge facing the nation is concerned.

Structurally speaking, the problem the country faces today is much like that the one that tsarist and Soviet Russia faced. By refusing to share power and to adapt to changing conditions, the rulers create a crisis that, unaddressed, ultimately proves lethal. The interests of the nation's ruling class threaten the very existence of the nation itself.

How does the new Russia avoid the same fate? In a word -- diversify.

Economically, Russia can save itself from its overdependance on oil, gas and other commodities by doubling its bet on scientific projects like nanotechnology. Success will not be immediate, but the dividends could prove enormous in the fields of energy, medicine and defense. Success will also restore some of the scientific luster the country enjoyed during the early space age.

Russia has already begun diversifying economically. Russian companies own Getty, a U.S. chain of gasoline stations, and Evraz, Russia's largest steelmaker, has agreed to pay $4 billion for IPSCO's North American plate and pipe business. Pepsi recently bought a three-quarter share in Lebedyansky, the country's largest juice manufacturer, for $1.4 billion.

What's good about this kind of commercial interdependence is that it will eventually lead to problems and disputes, which will have to be settled by lawyers and in court. Gradually, a body of law and a habit of law will be built up. It can serve as a basis for civil and political law that has so far eluded Russia.

At some point in this process, Russian television will also need to diversify. In practice, this might mean placing blocks of air time outside state control, independent channels owned by oligarchs, or some form of national independent television, though that is harder to visualize. In any case, if the flow of information becomes more constricted, the country's prestige will suffer an even more precipitous decline. It will also mean that by depriving scientists, businessmen and citizens of information, the Kremlin will be repeating the self-destructive mistakes of the past.

Once business, law and communications have been diversified, genuine political opposition parties can be allowed. This need not be done because freedom is God's gift to humanity or because it is kinder and nobler to allow people genuine choice in all aspects of life. In the end, a measure of real accountability on the part of politicians, a real fear of losing office in unriggable elections and the heated exchange of ideas that is part of any real campaign debate will have the salutary effect of reducing social tensions and preventing destabilizing concentrations of power.

Democracy is the ultimate diversification. And Russia's survival will depend on it.

6 comments:

Artfldgr said...

How does the new Russia avoid the same fate? In a word -- diversify.

He isn’t kidding is he? The magic communist propaganda is now being directed from the west back to the source as advice for a better state? The irony is so much I could start a factory and make irony products that magnets would stick to.

Economically, Russia can save itself from its overdependance on oil, gas and other commodities by doubling its bet on scientific projects like nanotechnology.

Come again?

No, it can’t. And for many many good reasons, but leftist wing nuts are called useful IDIOTS, and not useful GENIUSES for a reason …

Nano tech will not save Russia.

One doesn’t just open up a nano tech lab and start producing intellectual property. In fact Russia has been pretty abysmal at producing intellectual property. Technically they are cargo cult mentality.

They don’t innovate. How can they? Americans are losing their ability to innovate since you can’t group innovate any more than you can have a group orgasm. The Russians who are back in the homeland have been subjected to a very intense breeding program. (the Chinese are facing similar problems).

There are only a few makers in any population. They are not easy to produce, they are actually unnatural. They tend to be clever, resourceful, inventive, well educated, broadly educated, deeply educated, very independent of thought, and more. it’s the difference between the people that move us incrementally forward, and the army of the invisible hand in which its effectiveness is related to how many of these free agents there are floating in the population.

These are russias worst nightmare as far as enemies of the state go. So while there are schemers in the population plenty, and that makes their success higher in the west, they aren’t doing things in the independently inventive market.

Those people were starved, murdered, tortured, worked to death, and sacrificed…

Their genes were removed from the gene pool of the Russian population (just as feminism is causing the smartest women to do the same deal in the west).

You see, America, till recently, was completely made up of these people who were also smart enough to leave. The west welcomed them, and gave them a place to succeed in.

And they created a huge complicated and supporting infrastructure that can then create nanotechnology. The lab has to be supported by a huge infrastructure…other labs, other places… etc.

Then how about this one. solid intellectual property laws and a court system that prosecutes when they are abridged…

And how about… not having so many spies and a state ethos of ip theft so that others will even sell them equipment…

How can they create nanotech when they are so far behind in infrastructure, and ip, law, etc.

They can catch up. They can do so in impressive time. But it would have to take the kgb committing suicide and its employees retiring to live out their days in peace and leave the people alone to create all that unhindered.

While the west was working away at things… taking loans to rebuild… Russia kept going its own way, being the oddball, stealing and cheating… manipulating.. and more… never actually developing, even to today.

The west wants it to join the party… but heck, its megalomaniacal, it will only come If everyone calls it ruler and bows to it. anything less will be an insult to her greatness.

So she suffers, her people suffer, her economy doesn’t grow, no one trusts it to do business with, the raw materials are sold not converted into products, and the list goes on and on.

It can serve as a basis for civil and political law that has so far eluded Russia.

No, not really… the basis is already in existence, but it would have to have them scrap socialist communist stuff. if they really collapsed, the legal system could change, but since they didn’t, the legal system didn’t change. The old folks knew it, so they never tried. Age and treachery outdoes youth and enthusiasm.

Sociopaths have no concept of the rule of law. Could that be why law eludes them?

Could it be that people who think they are above the law, cant conceptualize fair laws and accept unplanned outcomes?

Democracy is the ultimate diversification. And Russia's survival will depend on it.

Russia always referred to itself as a democracy… duh… the US only recently started to do that… before that we remembered that we are not a democracy, but a republic.

Democracy is mob rule and the mob cant govern itself that way… the most powerful sociopaths end up ruling and creating a feudal type system. Haven’t you noticed?

The republic created through democratic elections is what allows for limited government, and so on and so forth.

The US is a republic, its elections are democratic, its not a democracy… people don’t vote laws, and all the states business, it democratically elects such people to do that job when its not selecting people.

Hasn’t anyone noticed this?

Amazing…

Tower Bolshevik said...

So if this fantasized collapse does take place, what will Russia be if not Russia? You dream up a collapse that no doubt will annihilate the Russian people, a wet dream of yours I think.

Governments collapse, nations don't. First time it was the angelic "democratic" monarchy, followed by the bourgeois democratic government that failed miserable. Then it was the Soviet workers state, sold out to capitalism by Stalinist bureaucrats who then degenerated into capitalist oligarchs. Russia's leadership was in no way traumatized by the USSR collapse, look how much money they received from it, how much richer they became, now they have private shares.

The problem the Russian people face is what they faced in 1917. A people raped by a corrupt ruling class in league with the USA, UK, and other imperialists, but unlike 1917 there is no real party to mobilize the masses against the ruling class. 1917 they had the Bolsheviks, today no one. The Soviet Union had no ruling class, so therefore it has no relevence in this topic.

"The interests of the nation's ruling class threaten the very existence of the nation itself."

Well, I couldn't agree with you more. The U.S economy is slowing down, money is pouring into 2 losing wars, popular world opinion is against the U.S rulers. This diversity you speak of, Russia has been doing since 1991. "Democracy" as far as Bush and the other imperialists are concerned, applies to Russia. They may be rivals to some extent, but partners in business they have remained.

As for Russia's elections, at least they can have it and get it over with. Unlike America, where a bunch of morons like McCain, Obama, and Clinton just show their big stupid smiles and prolong results because they're not satisfied. U.S politicians make Bozo the Clown look like Plato. At least Russia's rulers don't have this stupid image.

Artfldgr said...

At least Russia's rulers don't have this stupid image.


no your right they dont...

lets see stalin gets lenin, beria gets stalin (russia herself let us know), they invent the US hiv thing (again from russia informing us). millions worked to death in the camps... forced starvation... more then 200 journalists murdered since putin took office.. poisionings with dioxin, thalium, polonium... the accident with anthrax at their labs.. the cold blooded murder of the imperial family.. including the children..

oh.. and china didnt create any oligarchs, the state and the few werent in kahootz like in russia.

oh.. and our leaders just dont match up on quotes..

one man is a trajedy, a million a statistic.

no man, no problem.

heck lets add the creation of the Stasi, the romanian cruelties, and more as well.

heck they invented the checka by opening up the prisons and starting with criminal and sexual psychopaths.

remember what happened to bukharin, rykov, yagoda, krestinsky, etc?

hey... why dont you look at the list of journalists killed... no country kills more newspeople than russia.

they already have two this year!
[actually more, but the list isnt updated yet)
Gaji Abashilov (shot in car)

Ilyas Shurpayev, Dagestani (strangled with a belt)

the story of Stepan Bandera is interesting since they hit him with a poison in the face.

oh, then what about smersh?

Georgi Markov in london...

The Soviets were suspected, but only after the collapse of the Soviet Union did all the details come out. Former KGB General Oleg Kalugin publicly admitted that he was present when the Bulgarian Communist intelligence service requested that the KGB supply the weapon and the poisons to murder Markov. Kalugin, who opposed the idea, was overruled by his superiors, who provided the murder weapon from the KGB laboratory. We learned then that the laboratory was still in existence producing exotic poisons almost 20 years after the murder of Bandera.

oh the thalium was Nikolai Khohlov in germany...


care to list out the US stuff... watch it though, i know my history...

to quote churchill... “An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”

why dont you tell us about yamentau mountains upgrades?

can you tell me what happend to Arkady Patarkatsishvili, and Leonid Rozhetskin

There was in fact an explosion in homicides after the fall of the Soviet Union. In Russia, homicides alone jumped from just over 10,000 in 1988 to 20,000 in 1992 and to 30,000 in 1995. The rate has continued to stay around the last figure for the past decade, with only a minuscule decrease in the past two years.

thats why the US has been giving russia 800 million to help with the murder problem.

the FSB is ideologically motivated, and will strike in the interests of the Russian state or of the politicians it serves. This explains the shift toward high-profile murders in the past few years, with victims expanding from common businesspeople to include journalists, politicians, bankers and people involved with strategic sectors.


yup... real good... much better leaders... can you tell me how many hits happen in the US?

let me know about Igor Onishchenko and that stuff too.

Tower Bolshevik said...

Artfldgr: First off, Stalin has nothing to do with Lenin. Stalin murdered all of the founders of the October Revolution plus the original Red Army commanders, and sold out just about every chance of a workers revolution. I'm sure it gives you comfort to know that a large portion of Stalin's victims were Communists. You obviously are completely unaware of Russian history if you place Putin even in the same catagory as the Stalinist bureaucracy. For you, its just the "Russian system", or some ignorant label like that. How about people like Trotsky, Tukhachevsky, Yakir, Egorov, and all those who kicked the snot out of the White butchers and the imperialist invaders? All murdered by Stalin. As for the imperial family, they deserved it. Why don't you tell me about the families that were murdered by the Czar's cutthroats like the Cossacks or the Black Hundreds who also massacred workers, Jews, and non-Russians? And how they were loved by the USA, UK, and the other imperialist powers. But they stood for "freedom and democracy" of Woodrow KKK Wilson and Winston stuck pig Churchill.

Don't give this crap of comparing capitalist Russia to the Soviet degenerated workers state. I honestly don't know why people like you whine and cry about the crimes of Russia's capitalist rulers, people like you applauded them in 1991, called them "fighters for democracy", praised them for bringing "freedom" to Russia, and now you denounce them? You supported them! And don't tell me about Stepan Bandera with your crocodile tears. His UPA fanatics before receiving CIA and MI-6 funds to kill Soviet troops, massacred hundreds of thousands Jews, ethnic Poles, and Russians in Ukraine. Ever heard of the Volhynia Massacre in 1943, where tens of thousands of Poles were murdered by your darling UPA cutthroats? Didn't think so.

"There was in fact an explosion in homicides after the fall of the Soviet Union"

Ah, yes! The fruits of "democracy" that Russians can so enjoy, and live in endless happiness:) USA is trying to help Russia with the murder problem? HAHAHA! Good one! When the USA can't even solve their own.

Since you know the history, I'll be happy to give you a list. Much worse the a few assassinations.

1954, Guatemala: U.S ousted leftist president Jacobo Arbenz, installs Gen. Efrian Rios Montt as dictator. Tens of thousands killed or disappeared. Ethnic cleansing campaign against Mayas.

1964, Brazil: U.S ousted leftist government of Joao Goulart, installs military dictatorship of Gen. Humberto Branco. Thousands are murders or disappear.

1973, Chile: leftist government of Salvador Allende ousted, him murdered, Gen. Augusto Pinochet installed by USA as dictator, thousands murdered, tortured, and disappeared.

1980's, El Salvador: U.S funded death squads of Maj. Roberto "Blowtorch Bob" D'Aubuisson. Hundreds of thousands murdered, thousands more tortured, hence the name.

Two atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 3 million dead in Korea, up to five million in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia; which the USA still got the snot kicked out of them, 5,000 in Yugoslavia, 2 million Iraqis starved, right down to the current "war on terror" in Iraq and Afghanistan. There you go, kid.

Lastly, again, don't try to use the crimes of the capitalist regime in Russia against me. Remember, this is the government you WANTED to take office in place of the Stalinist leadership of the Soviet Union.

Artfldgr said...

Stalin has nothing to do with Lenin.
they are linked through the state organ that lenin created with dzerzhinsky

The main weapon, however, was terror. Once Lenin became fully aware of the opposition to the Bolsheviks, his thinking evolved into a position that supported the use of terror to achieve party objectives. Dzerzhinsky and many of his associates believed that the use of terror was not directed against individuals but against bourgeoisie as a class. It was class warfare. For the recipients of Cheka attention, their treatment became very personal. When the extent of their brutality became known publicly, Dzerzhinsky explained it as being nothing more than bloodthirsty impulses. These impulses in Moscow brought unfavorable reactions.

the terror started even before the revolution. sorry, but i am familiar with more than one wave of russians with difference histories depending on when they were born. the one your on is after stalins crap was known, and so they separated the two and put the blame on stalin. all russian leaders for the past 100 years have been cut in the same mold, except not all of them have thought it "pragmatic" after learning the damage that is done when its not done carefully. which is why they are still killing journalists like flies.

From 1917 to 1921 the Cheka, in attempting to secure power for the Bolsheviks, probably executed more than 250,000 people. Most were charged with treason but many not at all. Under Dzerzhinsky's leadership, the terror they wielded was complete.

care to read what the founding fathers of the americas did when they won their revolutionary war?

it wasnt what the socialist french did, which is the same thing that lenin did, stalin did, mao did, pol pot did, castro did, che did, and i can go on through asia, africa, south america too.

I'm sure it gives you comfort to know that a large portion of Stalin's victims were Communists.

your an ass... heres why. i know things because most of my family ended up in the gulags.

care to comment on family history? its not a tall tale i read in a book in school, for me its why i dont have family now and there are only about 10 or so of us left when there was many more.

though i guess since i was born here after i also have to owe my existence to that cursed time. no?

you never know who your talking to on the net. right? all you have is the pompassity that i have seen over and over as you use the same arguments endlessly like hitler and goebbles said. no orignal thinking since pushkin, or rather dzerzhinsky (except for making weapons like the kalashnikov, the current champion in manufacture and distribution and death at costs that every terrorist like their own state apparatus can get)

How about people like Trotsky, Tukhachevsky, Yakir, Egorov, and all those who kicked the snot out of the White butchers and the imperialist invaders?

trotsky? you bring up trotsky? an old man hunted down by a state apparatus that then killed him how?

remember i said what did the american revolutionary winners did with the british losers and their sympathisers?

nothing. they were FREE to leave and FREE to stay.

As for the imperial family, they deserved it. Why don't you tell me about the families that were murdered by the Czar's cutthroats like the Cossacks or the Black Hundreds who also massacred workers, Jews, and non-Russians?

sure... the same bloodlust of all soviet leaders so far, whether royal or administrative. every one of them maintaining feudal power by murder, intrigue, subversion, revisionism (stalinism), and more.

there is little difference in the different systems, they both are feudal with the lumpen proletariat on the bottom suffering. their pain in deep contrast to the leaders who can stand over them like demons over the tortured souls below them.

sure, lets talk about murderous russial leaders through time and real killer despots.

And how they were loved by the USA, UK, and the other imperialist powers.

your a joke. like russia would have let american aid come in. do you want to find out how much aid we did send over the years and how much it was used for other things?

what you complain about is that there isnt enough people using state force to force others to do the 'right thing'.

that sentence above basically says, why did they try to save the vietnamese, the iraqies, the french, the belgians, the spaniards, and so many and make their countries nice, but they didnt want to go to war to save us russians.

so you could be happier here arguing about how the imperialists didnt respect russian state sovriengity over its own lands and invaded. which they never did.

But they stood for "freedom and democracy" of Woodrow KKK Wilson and Winston stuck pig Churchill.

yeah.. i think i should point out that things are not so clear there given the fact that today we know things a bit differently than that given your archives being open, and stolen to some degree (by your own people again).

shale i point out the socialist group that created a school in the south and educated rosa parks, and king, and seeger. the school was closed due to subversion... you see the people who were part of it purchased a house in a 'white' nieghborhood and then moved a black family into it. they went to jail because they later blew up the house so that the people would think it was the whites that did it, and they did for years.

how about the chinese dressing monks up?

your forget your own leaders comments. somthing to the effect you in the west react to history, russians organize and create history.

they have orchestrated so many events following the orders of lening as ideology. shall i quote lenin telling them that they must be prepared to literally do anything with out any limits to acheive their goals? before that, people had some form of limits.

but racing to the bottom seems to be a common thing and thought of as an advantage for the leaders of russia. "free love" was another one of your race to the bottom concepts... as was no fault divorce...

heck shall i show you the history of the russians that raped their way thru germany, and not only that raped their own women when they found them at the camps?

archives by administrative states are interesting...

catch ya later.. its my weekend, and i dont want to spend the sunny day telling someone to read more history... and try not to twist it as you do.

have a happy!

Tower Bolshevik said...

Artfldgr: It is no surprise that you ignored all the points I made, and twisted others with your stupid American "education". Tell me, did Lenin derail potential revolutions abroad? Create a privileged party bureaucracy? Seek peaceful coexistence with imperialism under the utopia of "socialism in one country"? Constanly undermined the very existence of the workers state? Come on! Surely these must be simple questions for you.

Opposition to the Bolsheviks, from who? The Cossacks, Black Hundreds, White Army, the 18 imperialist invading armies. The implementation of White Terror (as I've mentioned previously, which you ignored). Red Terror was necessary to combat White Terror of the bourgeoisie. I'm sure you're dumb enough to believe this crap that the population was for the Whites, continuing the war on the Eastern Front, against the Bolsheviks, and so on. If so, answer me one simple question: How did the Red Army achieve victory when faced with every Russian reactionary force, backed by an invasion of 18 imperialist armies, plus a starvation blockade of Russia's ports by the USA, UK, Japan, and Turkey?

No, I'm not one of those reformist liberals who flocked to Khurshchov's anti-Stalin speech. Stalinism in a liberal form came after. As for the founding fathers of America? Sure! Ask the Native Americans how much freedom they got. "Socialist French", what the hell are you talking about? Since you mentioned Pol Pot, add him to your list of darlings since he was secretly funded by the USA. Look for the essay "The Long Secret Alliance: Unlce Sam and Pol Pot" by John Pilger. But you're right! The slave owning founding fathers didn't strip the bourgeoisie from power like Lenin, Castro, Che, and so on.

"your an ass... heres why. i know things because most of my family ended up in the gulags."

Yep, right in there with the Left Opposition, and other dedicated Communists (another fact you ignored). And I don't give a rat's ass about your family.

In your case, I know very well who you are. You're just another neocon who things that capitalist Russia is the very same as the Stalinist leadership. That pretty much sums you up. Using the same bull that would come out of Bush, Clinton, Carter, or Reagan.

Trotsky, yes a man hunted down by the same regime that placed your family in the gulag. A man who struggled against imperialism and Stalinism.

Oh, so now after I mentioned the Cossacks and Black Hundreds, the royals suddenly become villains like every leader Russia had? How the Bolsheviks relate to these racist, anti-semitic butchers; only in American schools.

Americans aid? Like the starvation embargo they imposed? Sure, aid came. Somewhere in the 1930's after Stalin cut deals with American corporations who supplied contractors, keeping Soviet muscles straining. Another reason you should adore Stalin.

"that sentence above basically says, why did they try to save the vietnamese, the iraqies, the french, the belgians, the spaniards, and so many and make their countries nice, but they didnt want to go to war to save us russians."

Did you pull that out of your rear? The Vietnamese people resisted and defeated the bastards, the Iraqis are doing the same. The Spaniards by supported the "freedom fighters" Franco.

You mention Rosa Parks and MLK. So I can clearly see now that you've not only bought the lies of the U.S rulers, but the mentality and arguments of the pro-segregation forces in the South. Now, you're going to tell me that the KKK never lynched a single black person, and that it was all socialist lies. What appeals to you more lynching a black or knifing a Tajik girl?

"Free Love? I think you've misjudged me, boy. I'm no hippie. I've heard all the bullcrap of "Russian rapes". I don't doubt it occured, but I've seen evidence to show the numbers were grossly inflated for Cold War anti-Soviet propaganda. Yet the concentration camp victims looked at them as liberators, just as the people of Prague, Krakow, Bucharest, Sofia, Budapest, and all the countries liberated from the fascist hordes by the Red Army. I guess you'll also tell me, that all the Vietnamese people loved the Americans and French. That there was never any rape, massacre, destruction of homes. That it was all red propaganda. That everybody in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, and Earth yearn for the occupation of American troops. Go read some history, boy.