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Sunday, November 05, 2006

After the Election, Cold War II

AFP reports that, quite naturally, members of the U.S. Congress on both sides of the aisle are spoiling for a fight with Russia over its litany of outrageous actions threatening U.S. national security, and the days of the Bush Doctrine on Russia will end with the next election, no matter who wins.

Policymakers and analysts predict the next US Congress, whether led by Republicans or Democrats, will be increasingly scathing of the Kremlin, ahead of US and Russian presidential polls in 2008. ''I believe the Congress will try to force the administration to change gears with regard to Russia,'' said Elizabeth Stewart, foreign policy adviser to Republican Senator Gordon Smith.

Criticisms spring from a growing list of US-Russia disagreements, spanning Iran's nuclear programme, geopolitical concerns like Georgia and post-Soviet states, through human rights and trade spats.

There is also disquiet over how the emerging energy superpower hands out oil and gas contracts, its arms sales to US foe Venezuela and the murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya.

Critics in both parties also grumble that President George W Bush's vaunted friendship with President Vladimir Putin has failed to deliver.

Bush aides say some issues with Russia are best debated in private with Moscow _ like deals on securing nuclear materials left over from the Soviet Union and high-stakes diplomacy over Iran and North Korea.

But Ms Stewart said the administration would lose a ''free pass'' on Russia issues whoever wins next Tuesday.

''I think the Hill has run out of patience with this so-called quiet diplomacy,'' she said at an American Enterprise Institute (AEI) forum grouping US and Russian scholars in Washington.

A Democrat policy aide said privately that a ''tougher'' congressional stance towards Russia was likely, noting frustrations of US investors in the country were filtering through to Congress.

Lawmakers might also break ranks as Mr Bush slips into the lame duck status that bedevils all second-term presidents.

''Congress is a closer barometer of people's moods and changes, than particularly the president who does not have to run for re-election,'' said AEI scholar Leon Aron.

No one predicts a new Cold War, but rhetoric on Russia is hardening.

Republican Senator John McCain said on the campaign trail last week: ''Every indication is that Putin has gone the way of autocracy and is nostalgic for the days of the Russian empire.''

Democrat Senator Bill Nelson and Republican Norm Coleman will try to force into law a bid to stop the United States striking deals on nuclear cooperation with Russia if it continues to assist Iran on nuclear issues.

In July, four Democratic senators including potential 2008 candidate Joseph Biden, warned Mr Bush not to mince words with Mr Putin.

''If Russia's leaders want their country to assume its rightful place in the world, they must change course,'' they wrote.

Democrat Senator Evan Bayh and Republican veteran Senator Orrin Hatch in May branded Russia an intellectual property ''pirate'' unfit for the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

A deal currently being thrashed out between US and Russian negotiators on Russia's WTO entry will need Senate approval _ a process that will be a lightning rod for anger against Moscow.

Congressional suspicion of Russia is perhaps most acute over Iran, stoked by Moscow's construction of the Bushehr nuclear plant and stalling on nuclear sanctions on Teheran.

The ''colour'' revolutions in ex-Soviet states, for example Ukraine, won strong support in Congress, and Russian anger was rejected.

Russia's diplomatic showdown with Georgia also raised hackles in Washington, and administration critics were dismayed the United States signed on to a UN Security Council resolution on the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict _ seeing the move as a payoff for Russian support on the North Korean nuclear crisis.

Post-Soviet Russia's decline led many in Congress to discount it as a global player. Now anxiety is growing over its rebound.

A Congressional Research Service report last month noted ''there now appears to be more discord than harmony in US-Russian relations''.

Though Congress can frustrate foreign policy towards Russia, it is up to Mr Bush to set its course, so few believe congressional tough-talk will change things in Moscow.

''Whether this will result in a change in Russian policy is to some extent less important to members than it is an expression of our values,'' said Ms Stewart.

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