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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Lying to "President" Putin

Alexander Golts, writing in the Moscow Times, shows that the biggest problem with being a thuggish dictator is that people will be afraid to tell you the truth. Thus, with every day that passes you are living more and more in a world of illusion, surrounded by sycophants who will do nothing to alert you of problems that need fixing because to do so might risk their careers or even their lives. Welcome back to the USSR:

When I listened to a televised report of President Vladimir Putin's visit Wednesday to the Gromov Flight Research Institute, Russia's main flight-test center in the Moscow region, I couldn't believe what I was hearing. Not only did the institute's staff give a demonstration of the Su-35 -- which they referred to as the "very latest" fighter aircraft in the Russian arsenal -- but they informed the president that it had undergone its first test flight only the day before. Before an audience of millions, they duped Putin in the most brazen manner. You can easily open any encyclopedia of military aircraft and see for yourself that the Su-35 took its maiden flight 20 years ago. Twelve Su-35s were built by the mid-1990s, and now they are telling Putin that another 12 Su-35s are currently undergoing test flights. I strongly suspect that these are the same aircraft that have been around for more than a decade.

This story may be a precursor to what we can expect from a government that promises to build an "innovative army" by 2020 to which Putin referred in a speech before the State Council on Feb. 8. Putin said the foundation for such an army would rest on the development over the next couple of years of "new types of arms that are equal to those held by other states -- and in some cases superior."

One year ago, then-Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov presented a list of the so-called latest weaponry that, according to Putin, would constitute the military's "innovative development." But none of the items on the list is new. Since the Topol-M missile was developed in the late 1980s, the technologies it employs will already be 30 years old in 2015. The Iskander missile was deployed in the early 1990s, and the same is true of the C-400 air defense system. The Su-34 fighter bomber is equally "new." By the time Russia's military technology finally reaches the production stage, it is already obsolete. Therefore, Putin's innovative army of 2020 will really be based on military technology that dates from the last century.

Most amazing is that Russia is playing military catch-up while other global powers such as the United States, Britain, France and even China are undergoing what defense experts call a revolution in military affairs. These countries were on the cutting edge of information-technology breakthroughs in the 1990s, and this allowed them to bring real-time battlefield data to commanders in the field -- whether on land, sea, air or space. The uncertainty about the enemy's battlefield movements -- which was once considered an inevitable aspect of armed conflict -- is now gradually dissipating thanks to these new information technologies. For example, witnesses on the ground tell me that there is now a constant noise from the buzzing engines of unpiloted aircraft in the skies over Afghanistan and Iraq. The drones carry video cameras that relay a bird's-eye view of any piece of territory a commander is assigned to manage. Every officer, right down to the level of a platoon commander, can view the activity in any conflict zone with the aid of a laptop computer. On a larger strategic level, these technologies provide complete and unchallengeable battlefield superiority.

But Russia has done practically nothing in this high-tech sphere. Ivanov, now first deputy prime minister, recently revealed the total failure of Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System. The program's creators had promised for the last decade that the system would give both civil and military users advanced positioning capabilities, which is clearly essential to the military's precision-weapons systems. It turned out that domestic industries could not manufacture all of the components necessary for the system. If the country's military brass were serious about creating an innovative army, they would focus their energies on information technologies.

Russia's military leadership established the post of deputy minister for computer science, but to get an idea of how useful this department will be, it is enough to read the report by Alexander Burutin, deputy chief of the General Staff: His definition of "information wars" is the threat of a hacker attack on the country's computer networks.

However you look at it, there is no basis for hoping that Russia will create the innovative army Putin has promised. This is because the Kremlin promises one thing, and the armed forces move in exactly the opposite direction. And for that matter, so does the rest of the country.

2 comments:

Artfldgr said...

Not only did the institute's staff give a demonstration of the Su-35 -- which they referred to as the "very latest" fighter aircraft in the Russian arsenal -- but they informed the president that it had undergone its first test flight only the day before. Before an audience of millions, they duped Putin in the most brazen manner. You can easily open any encyclopedia of military aircraft and see for yourself that the Su-35 took its maiden flight 20 years ago. Twelve Su-35s were built by the mid-1990s, and now they are telling Putin that another 12 Su-35s are currently undergoing test flights. I strongly suspect that these are the same aircraft that have been around for more than a decade.

What does one do when the person writing an article has the basic facts wrong.

So lets see what I EASILY found.

Su-35 (Su-27M) is a single-seat attack fighter that first flew in 1988. The Su-27M (Su-35) never entered service, and should not be confused with the entirely distinct (Bolshaya Modernizatsiya - Big Modernization) which emerged nearly two decades later. The original Su-35 was produced in response to the requirements of the Soviet Air Force, with a preliminary series units being manufactured. Sukhoi assigned the designation Su-35 to the export version of the Su-27M (T-10M) in 1992.

So the confusion they wanted worked. they wanted the west to think that they were working on the same old plane. But alas, they named the plane the same name, and its not the same plane.

Meanwhile, the author fell into the trap by making an assertion and not backing it up.

Here is a small writing on this plane, you can use the name and designation to find out more.

SU-35BM (Bolshaya Modernizatsiya - Big Modernization)
The Su-35BM is a new project, and not a Su-27M. The original Su-35 was produced in response to the requirements of the Soviet Air Force, with a preliminary series units being manufactured. Sukhoi assigned the designation Su-35 to the export version of the Su-27M (T-10M) in 1992. This fighter was fitted with canards and the N011 radar. The financial crisis in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union precluded the Russian Air Force from buying this model in significant numbers. Production of the Su-27M had started in Komsomolsk during the last days of the Soviet Union, and a total of 15 aircraft (including the prototypes) were ultimately manufactured. The Su-35 was offered without sucess to several countries including South Korea, UAE and Malaysia. This model was part of the FX competition for for the new multi-function fighter for Brazil, despite of the lack of tradition of use of Russian military material for Brazil.
But fifteen years later the financial circumstances have changed and the requirements for updating the fighter plane forces of the Russian Air Force are concrete and pressing.
The Sukhoi-35BM is designed on the base of the engineering solutions applied for creation of the fifth-generation aircraft taking into account the experience of operation of the Su-30MK2 (Su-27SM) multipurpose aircraft family. The Su-35 combines both characteristics necessary for a modern fighter, such as: super-maneuverability, sophisticated active and passive sensor systems, high supersonic flight speed, high flight range, possibility to arrange aircraft interaction; and characteristics of a good combat aircraft, namely: high combat load, wide range of the “air-to-surface” missiles, sophisticated multichannel electronic warfare system, reduced radar observability, air-defense break capability at a low level flight.




If the author was our military… he would be sending our boys up and telling them about the old planes… then when they got there… whammo.

The rest of the article though isn’t worth reading since the assertion is false, the research was cursory, and so turned up the facts that they wanted to be turned up.

And not the fact that Russia has more than it seems.

It would have been nice for this author to put out thelist of things, so that I can update them.

Since the Topol-M missile was developed in the late 1980s, the technologies it employs will already be 30 years old in 2015.

That is sort of true… except that the new missle is RS-24 the topol M that the author here is referring to is the SS-27

Again. several systems with the same name. here is the missle that the article refers to:

The modernized 45-ton Topol-M is the first strategic missile to be built by Russia without the participation of Ukraine or other CIS countries. The first test firing of a Topol-M took place on December 20, 1994. The flight and design testing of the Topol-M was successfully completed by 1995


Here is the missle that the Russian leadership is referring to

First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov a former defense minister expected to run for President of Russia next year stated that “the missile was a new version of the Topol-M, first commissioned in 1997 and known as the SS-27 in the West, but one that can carry multiple independent warheads,” ITAR-TASS is quoted as saying. It is said to be compliant with the START-1 treaty and the Moscow Treaty of 2002 requirements.
The latter attributed statement by First deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov has tended to confuse the RS-24's warhead carrying capacity issue. That is because if the RS-24 is indeed a highly modified version of the Topol-M, SS-27 then its potential warhead capacity would only be 3 warheads. However if it indeed there were 10 warheads tends to suggest that the missile is a new improved Russian produces RS-22, SS-24 SCALPEL ICBM. Prior to this flight test of the full RS-24 system Russia had done at least two research and development flight test in 2005 – 2006 using the older Topol-M derivation for MIRV development.

On 29 May 2007 Russia conducted the first reported test of the new RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRV). A Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said "the prototype of the new ICBM, RS-24 with multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles was launched at 2:20 p.m. [ Moscow time, 10:20 GMT] from a mobile launcher remodeled to test the new ICBM from the Plesetsk test cosmodrome". "The test launch of the RS-24 (ICBM) occurred at 14:20 Moscow time ( 1:20 GMT) at Plesetsk and at the designated time the warheads struck the assigned region at the Kura base on Kamchatka," a spokesman for Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces told the news agency Interfax.
The RS-24 missile can be armed with up to 10 warheads, the Defence Ministry told Interfax. Six war heads are carried by the SS-19 Stiletto while 10 warheads are carried by the SS-18 Satan. The spokesman said the RS-24 will replace ICBMs of the previous generations RS-18 (SS-19 Stiletto) and RS-20 (SS-18 Satan) capable of carrying six and ten warheads respectively. It can also be expected to replace the aged 10 warhead SS-24, Scalpel. It was further stated by the Strategic Rocket Forces spokesman that “It is a genuine new missile but it uses technologies of the Topol-M,” according to AFP. This is in order to penetrate any existing anti-ballistic missile system.




So it’s a new missle too. that shows that even those analyzing will come up with saying the soviets old system is there and its not working. But one only needs to go SLIGHTLY deeper, and one will read the differences and the details.


The Iskander missile was deployed in the early 1990s

Which iskander? What letter designation? It’s a series.

In 1996 Russian television reports depicted the first launch of the SS-X-26, which is a direct evolution of the SS-23 Oka. It appears probable that new features will be incorporated into the design. The SS-X-26 appears to have several different conventional warheads, including a cluster munitions warhead, a fuel-air explosive enhanced-blast warhead, a tactical earth penetrator for bunker busting and an electro- magnetic pulse device for anti-radar missions. Given the relatively small warhead, improved terminal precision was a major system requirement, which could be achieved by active terminal sensor such as millimeter wave radar, satellite terminal guidance using GLOSNASS, an improved inertial platform, or some combination of these approaches.
As of 1999 it appeared that this system had entered operational service with the Russian Army.
Research carried out by specialists from the leading Russian military science centers has shown that the lskander-E missile complex is 5 to 8 times better than its foreign analogues in terms of the "effectiveness-cost" criterion. As for its tactical and technical characteristics, it also poses a great improvement on the existing Russian tactical missile complexes. Capable of accomplishing tasks connected with the use of non-nuclear warheads, it's the world's first complex equipped with two-missile launch installation. Weighing 3800 kilos each, controlled throughout the trajectory of their flight, equipped with various systems of correction and self-targeting, its missiles are capable of overcoming the enemy's anti-missile defences and hitting targets at a distance of 280 kilometers.



Guess they updated that one too…

The C-400 is the S-400 Triumf

The S-400 program has apparently severed the historically close walk-across between Russian and Western designation systems. Until recently, each Russian designator had a direct and unique Western counterpart, and vice versa [allowing for minor variants]. But the S-400 encompasses three entirely unrelated missiles, only two of which are genuinely new, and the most widely publicized of the new missiles may never see operational deployment.
The Triumf S-400, initially known as the S-300PMU3, is a new generation of air defense and theater anti-missile weapon developed by the Almaz Central Design Bureau as an evolution of the S-300PMU [SA-10] family. Major differences between the PMU-2 and the S-400 include a larger number of targets it can track and improved electronic counter-countermeasures. The Triumf system includes radars capable of detecting low-signature targets.



Again… the same thing… same old name with some new things under it. that way when you read reports you think they are talking about the old system.

I am not going to bother going over the Su-34… you can do the research the author didn’t yourself.

And why didn’t the author mention the SA21 Mysk?

As of 2000 there were reports that the SA-21 designation referenced the S-500 complex, a new anti-aircraft, anti-missile system design by Almaz in competitive development with Antey's S-400 to produce a Russian equivalent to THAAD.


S-500? He didn’t mention that…

The new Samoderzhets missile system was described as being "fifth-generation" -- the term fourth-generation having been used to describe the S-400 Triumf. It may combine the ground systems, radar, and shorter range 9M96 and 9M96/2 missiles of the S-400 with the long-range 9M82M missile originally developed for the S-300VM Antei-2500. The Samoderzhets system could be the same “fifth generation” system as that referenced in a January 2007 report in Voyennykh Novostey, which quoted Antei designers saying that the new system would be available by 2012.
= = = = = = = = =
The Samoderzhets is intended to become the basis for the unified anti-aircraft missile complex for all types of the Russian military forces. It can also become the basis of a theater missile defense (TMD) complex ensuring protection from short-range ballistic missiles on the battlefield. The system combines the long range of the S-300VM missile and the advanced electronics of the S-400 missile. As a result Russian designers have developed a system that they claim is better by all parameters then the newest American system, the PAC-3 Patriot.
The 9M82M missile has a maximum range of 200km against large aircraft targets and can engage ballistic missiles re-entering at speeds of up to 4.5km/s. The latter velocity is associated with missiles with a range of 2,500km. Its warhead creates 20g fragments.
On 08 August 2007 it was reported that the Russian Air Force commander stated that Russia was developing a fifth-generation air defense missile system that is superior to S-400 Triumf complex and capable of hitting targets in space. "While working on the S-400, we have been developing a fifth-generation air defense system, which will be more compact, more maneuverable, and will certainly have superior technical characteristics," Colonel General Alexander Zelin said. According to Zelin, the new missile system will combine elements of air, missile and space defense, and will be developed by the Almaz-Antei air defense consortium. The Air Force commander said major enhancements would be made to the system's electronic components. "The enhancement of electronics will allow the systems to see farther, higher and react quicker, which will significantly expand the range of their capabilities, including repelling strikes from space," Zelin said.


So while the author is crowing about s400s… which are one old, and two new… he says nothing about the new fifth generation stuff in the S-500

Most amazing is that Russia is playing military catch-up while other global powers such as the United States, Britain, France and even China are undergoing what defense experts call a revolution in military affairs.

Really?

Russia’s newest tank the t95 the chiorny oriole… its actually newer and now considered the best tank in the world. It comes prepped for nuclear war and tactical nuclear usage. Unlike the west.

I can also list out about 20 new things of lesser import.

Guess what russia has been doing with the trillion dollars a year the US has been giving them. makes building missiles easier if America is paying for them.

But Russia has done practically nothing in this high-tech sphere.

That’s because russia sees technology as a crutch and a weakness. that’s because they have been working hard to create technologies and such that breaks the US electronics and then leaves our soldiers incapable of fighting.

Remember, russia believes and is prepared for nuclear warfare. So they think electronics in the field will not work due to EMP. Why develop fancy things that cant be protected since they are in portable versions?

Remember, CHINA makes the computer chips and systems. it would be very hard to detect and find things put into the chips to facilitate this. counterfeit parts have been a large problem now that procurement and building is done by other countries.

I wouldn’t be surprised if GLONASS is crippled on purpose, and will work fine in a conflict as even the western GPS is in a degraded mode. Russia can use western GPS to do the tasks it needs. Russian Glonass is really only needed in warfare since there is another satellite set they can use for free and that everything is cheap and easy to buy.

If the country's military brass were serious about creating an innovative army, they would focus their energies on information technologies.

Right. Because only technology wins the war. That’s why the Zulus lost to the british with the machine guns when they had only spears. Wait… they didn’t lose…

That’s why the Vietnamese did so poorly, they had superior technology.
That’s why the war in iraq is over, the superior technology made the job easy.

Do you see a problem pattern here? russia sees an overdependence on technology. That you can be located by your tech… that you become helpless without it if you haven’t been trained for both. And what happens to laser bombs and such when their systems are dead?

there is no basis for hoping that Russia will create the innovative army Putin has promised

No. no basis. Well the article is a sham… so the there is a basis, and so there is also the fact to be cautious… why? because russia is saying its about to get desperate and have to pre-empt.


U.S. able to attack and dismember Russia by 2012-2015 - Russian military analyst

MOSCOW. Feb 23 (Interfax-AVN) -After 2012-2015, the U.S. will be able to annihilate Russian strategic nuclear forces by a non-nuclear preemptive strike, said Konstantin Sivkov, the first vice president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems.

"I declare that the likelihood of a military threat is great as never before now," Sivkov told Interfax on Saturday.

Western military experts have recently started to talk about the possibility of attacking Russia and annexing its territory, Sivkov said. "Russia is supposed to be dismembered into three parts, with the Western part going to the European Union, the central part and Siberia to the U.S., and the eastern to China. This is a rough scenario," he said.

Russian armed forces will be unable to successfully counter an aggression, Sivkov said. "At the present time, the conventional armed forces cannot properly perform their duties in a regional war, like the Great Patriotic War, even in theory. Even if fully deployed, their potential is limited even in local wars. The only factor that deters [the U.S.] now is the nuclear arsenal," he said.

Source: Interfax

Anonymous said...

It is a biggest nonsense which is hard to even imagine - U.S. plans to dismember Russia. Can you imagine if Russian generals will try to pre-empt by nuclear strike based on this "information" coming for such "experts". This can be treated as truth only in a situation where you imagine yourself always surrounded by ever increasing armies of enemies. Imagination is a very dangerous toy in the hands of Russian military!