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Thursday, September 07, 2006

Annals of Cold War II: Already, a Doomsday Scenario for Russia Emerges

Publius Pundit has reported the discovery by America of perhaps 15 billion barrels of oil, enough to meet 100% of America's energy needs for nearly seven years, under the sea floor in the Gulf of Mexico. It cites a Globe & Mail story.

Now, just for the sake of argument, let's say that America and Russia are involved in a Cold War, and America wants to destroy Russia's economy, destabilize the Putin regime and drive its KGB miscreants from power the same way it did with the Bolsheviks.

If this oil reserve is as large is predicted, all America has to do is stop buying oil on the world markets. For seven years.

Or it could buy 50% less oil. For fourteen years.

Or it could buy 25% less oil. For twenty-eight years.

Do you have any idea what would happen to the price of oil on world markets if America, by far the world's largest consumer of crude, announced it was going to buy 25% less oil for three decades? The Kremlin would be driven into insolvency and ruin, easily within the first decade if not sooner. If America stopped making purchases entirely, Russia probably wouldn't last the first year.

During those three decades, America would have plenty of time to fully develop the massive Canadian oil shales which can make American energy independent for centuries, making the price drop permanent. That's to say nothing of conservation measures in the U.S. (wind and solar power, fuel cell cars, etc.).

And it's to say nothing of all the other measures America can take to ratchet up economic pressure on Russia's pathetic excuse for an economy and wretched sham of a currency, much less what America's many allies can do.

And, come to think of it, there is a Cold War brewing between the U.S. and Russia. Why, just yesterday La Russophobe reported that Russia had cancelled joint military exercises with the U.S. and filed a lawsuit to block a Western oil company from doing business in Russia. She has a whole sidebar section devoted to the unfolding cold war events between the two countries.

Gee, if La Russophobe were Vladimir Putin, she'd be pretty worried.

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