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Saturday, August 26, 2006

Problem of Putin Dictatorship Solved: Madonna's Going to Have a Few Words with Him

Female First reports that Madonna is rushing to the aid of Russian democracy (if of course the Russian mafia who have promised to kill her don't get to her first). We all know what a strict disciplinarian she can be, so she'll no doubt have Putin well in hand before the second course is served:

Madonna is to have dinner with the President of Russia. The 'Hung Up' singer is set to bring her 'Confessions' world tour to Moscow on September 11 and she will reportedly meet with President Vladimir Putin in the Russian capital the day after. As well as dining with Putin, Madonna - who is married to British film director Guy Ritchie - will also meet his daughters, Maria and Katya. A source told Britain's The Sun newspaper: "This has been on the cards for a while. She really wanted to meet him but he wasn't sure initially. But his daughters are big fans so he eventually agreed." It is rumoured that Madonna will take the privileged opportunity to speak to President Putin about world issues. The source added: "No doubt Madonna will want to talk about world peace rather than her raunchy dance moves on stage."

Friday, August 25, 2006

Time Magazine Exposes Russian Racism

In an awesome and terrifying two-part opus by a Russian reporter, Time magazine lays bare the horrors of Russian racism (the young lady in the photograph is a member of the National Bolshevik Party and is holding a copy of the book Another Russia by Eduard Limonov, founder of the party; nationalism and racism, it seems, go hand and hand in Russia these days, and indeed you have to look quite closely to realize that the young lady isn't actually a Nazi).


Part I: Russia's Racism Problem

More and more Russians believe their country is for whites only, and that's leading to deadly violence

By Yuri Zarakhovich (Moscow)

The blast that ripped through a small cafe in the Cherkizovo market in eastern Moscow Monday morning killed eight instantly, including two children aged four and five. Two more victims died in a hospital, and the death count may yet grow: eleven of 35 wounded are in extremely grave condition. It was a brutal attack, and many Westerners acquainted with the Chechen rebels' tactics over the years might at first simply conclude it was yet another front in the war on terror — a random act of violence perpetrated by Islamic militants bent on inflicting as much carnage as possible on the West, be it George Bush's U.S. or Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Except that most of those killed are Uzbeks, Tajiks, Chinese and Vietnamese — the "blacks" or "churki" (wooden stubs), as Russian Nationalists derogatively call non-white foreigners, and as the increasing number of average Russians casually echo them. On Tuesday, law enforcement officials said they identified the bombers as three young ethnic Russian students of Moscow colleges. The suspects believed, Moscow's Prosecutor Yuri Demin told the press, that "There are too many Asians" here.

As repugnant as that may sound, it is becoming an increasingly popular view in today's Russia. Which is why even if the two suspects arrested are indeed guilty, they might get away with the crime. With 52% Russians supporting the slogan "Russia for Russians," and with many increasingly sympathetic to those who attack immigrants, the courts may well be lenient. "Racist attacks happen with shocking regularity in Russia, and the government is shirking its responsibilities and failing to confront the problem," Amnesty International said in its May 2006 report on hate crime in Russia. According to the Moscow Human Rights Bureau, racists murdered 10 people last year-and 18 in the first half of this year, not incluing the ten people killed by the Cherkizovo market bomb.

Last September, a St. Petersburg court heard the case of a neo-Nazi group, known as Shultz88, accused of multiple racial assaults. The leader got six years, while three stormtroopers got three years of suspended sentences each. One was let go as under-aged. And stormtrooper Alexei Vostroknutov was let go for the lack of proof.

I met Shultz88's stormtroopers in July 2004. One of them introduced himself as Alexei, but would not give his last name because he was facing that same trial. He had spent six months in pre-trial detention, but was set free. Alexei boasted about the number of the "churki" and "yids" he assaulted—-"And I don't care how many of them died." There wasn't another Alexei at the Shultz88 trial, so it must be him whom they let off scot-free. He knew he could afford to boast.

A day before that encounter I talked with Yuri Belyayev, leader of the neo-Nazi Freedom Party, based in St Petersburg. As we talked, he leaned over my recorder to make sure his quote would not be missed and said very distinctly: "Let me report: that Syrian who they say died in a Subway accident—-it was not an accident at all. My skin-group leader, the nickname of Valtroon, pushed him."

Belyayev also knew he did not risk anything. He supported Putin and believed the President shared some of his goals. "He is for rubbing the churki out, and for a strong Russia, and so are we," Belyayev said. Back in the fall of 1999, in the wake of terrorist apartment bombings in Moscow and other Russian cities, then premier Putin pledged "to rub out the terrorists on the john". Neo-Nazis — along with many Russians who would genuinely feel insulted, if called Nazis — interpreted this statement in the same way Belyayev did — as a virtual license to attack. I heard it from officers who fought in Chechnya often enough.

It is true that on the eve of the G-8 Summit, Putin's government had to show that it had cleaned up St. Petersburg; the police shot dead a 22-year-old skinhead, named as a neo-Nazi leader, charged with a blatant murder of an African student and resisting arrest. But despite that show of force, hate assaults did not cease either in St. Petersburg, or elsewhere. A week after the G-8 summit, the jury at the St. Petersburg City Court acquitted four nationalists charged with the deadly assault of an African student. The gallery applauded and shouted "well done" and "thanks" to the jury.

About a week ago, a band of skinheads beat to pulp a Tajik boy in a dacha Moscow village where I live, while another gang badly stabbed two Dagestanis on a suburban train. And many of these cases will never even be registered with the authorities.

What many Russians do not understand is that once they use the hate vocabulary of "churki" and "blacks", they feed the specter of fascism even if they do not fully support it. And yes, this specter is getting out of hand.

Back in July 2004, Alexei of the Shultz88 group told me: 'The time of our shahids, and our bombings, has come.' He was talking of groups or individuals who would create a Nazi Al Qaeda by linking through the Internet. Two years ago, I thought that the government could still roll all this scum back within a week. Monday's bombing seems to indicate that it might be too late — even if the government actually wanted to.

Part II: From Russia, with Hate

With skinheads and neo-Nazis on the rise, the country is bracing for a wave of xenophobic attacks

By Yuri Zarakhovich (Moscow)

It's a spring afternoon in downtown Moscow. Pushkin Square, a major hub of the Russian capital, is as vibrant as ever. Even those who hurry along on urgent errands steal a second to stop and enjoy the sunshine after weeks of rain and snow. But the atmosphere in one corner of the square is more menacing. A crowd of about 80 teenagers is chanting "Kill the U.S.A.!" and raising their arms in the Nazi salute. Zakhar, aged 15, with shaved head and camouflage shirt, is reluctant to talk to a journalist, but makes an exception to explain that the rally is "all about exterminating the Jews, Americans and other scum."

Immediately after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Russians in their thousands brought flowers, wreaths, lighted candles and icons to the U.S. embassy wall. Something of a rapprochement between Russia and the West followed. But those feel-good days are gone. In a poll by the Public Opinion Foundation last month, 70% of those surveyed regarded the U.S. as a hostile country. And earlier this month, the U.S. embassy in Moscow received an e-mail in broken English that read: "We are to kill all the foreigners we see, marking the birthday of Hitler [April 20]. Send your citizens back — or else. Russia is for Russians." It was signed: "Ivan, President, Skinhead Group of Russia." The embassy took the threat seriously enough to alert all Americans in Russia to the increased risk over the next several weeks.

For members of extremist and neo-Nazi groups, Hitler's birthday has become an occasion for venting their anger. And not just against the Americans. On April 20 last year, Moscow skinheads launched attacks that left a young Chechen killed and more than a dozen badly injured. Why do they do it? "Because [Hitler] gave us the holy idea of National Socialism," says Zakhar.

Moscow police have promised to take "necessary measures" to prevent skinhead violence on Hitler's birthday. But one policeman, who impassively observed Zakhar and his friends hoist "Skins against Bush" posters near the McDonald's in Pushkin Square, didn't seem too worried. When asked why no "measures" were being taken against this group, he shrugged: "Where do you see any skinheads here? It's a rally to support domestic chicken producers against American imports."

Ten years ago skinheads numbered no more than a few dozen in Moscow. Now the Interior Ministry estimates that there are 10,000 skinheads and other neo-Nazis in the country. Independent analysts put the figure at closer to 50,000. No official data on skinhead violence exist, but an estimate by journalists and foreign embassies suggests that skinhead assaults have left more than a dozen foreigners dead and 100 hospitalized in Moscow since May 2000. Similar attacks have taken place in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and Novgorod. Russian officials dismiss these incidents as simple hooliganism but can't deny that they have become more common. "There is a sharp increase in physical and verbal attacks against foreigners," says a senior U.S. embassy official.

The situation has become so bad that last month 18 foreign students, mainly from African and Asian countries, studying at Rostov Medical University chose to leave Russia for good. They had been subjected to repeated beatings and insults by local skinheads, while the police turned a blind eye. At a conference held last week in Moscow to discuss dangers to foreign students, representatives of Russian universities said that in the face of police indifference they would have to hire private guards and form self-defense teams to protect their 70,000 foreign students.

The skinheads also target non-Slav minorities from the Caucasus, whom Russians disparagingly refer to as "blacks," and Jews. Last October, a crowd of 300 skinheads smashed a market in south Moscow, beating the "black" merchants, then moved on to the Sevastopol Hotel to attack Afghan refugees staying there. Four people were killed and more than 20 badly injured.

Dressed in bomber or camouflage jackets and heavy steel-tipped boots, skinheads prowl in packs of three to five "fighters" armed with clubs and steel rods. These groups can merge quickly to form mobs of several hundred for major assaults, which seem too well-organized to be spontaneous.

Many Russians hold politicians accountable for skinhead violence. "Why blame the kids?" asks Sergei Antonov, an unemployed Moscow economist in his early 40s. "Blame the government, which has condemned Russians to poverty while the blacks and foreigners are lording it over us." Today, most skinheads are still in their teens, warns Antonov, but soon "they'll take dominant positions as they become adults. You'll see their impact a decade later." In fact, their impact is already clear in Pushkin Square.

Inflation Eats Russians Alive as Personal Incomes Nosedive

Dutch disease is slowly closing its icy, bony fingers around Russia's neck (the Russian graphic shown above depicts the difference between inflation in Russia and various other countries as designated by their national flags) . The rising price of oil abroad is exerting harsh pressure on domestic prices, and things are being made worse by the strengthening ruble, which makes it much more difficult to sell Russian products abroad and depresses employment and wages in Russia. A Moscow Times report indicates that inflation has brought ordinary citizens to the brink of starvation in Russia:

When the price of bread jumped by 6 rubles overnight, Vladimir Gaidukas was left reeling. City authorities quickly began handing out bread coupons to him and hundreds of other pensioners in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky -- the first time food vouchers had been issued anywhere in the country since the dark days of 1992. But the gesture brought little comfort to Gaidukas, 72, who lives on 5,000 rubles ($187) per month.

"People are in a state of shock," Gaidukas said by telephone from the remote city on the Kamchatka Peninsula this week.

While no other cities have resorted to vouchers, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky is not unique in its problem. Nationwide, prices are rising sharply for everything from sugar and pasta to apartments and gasoline. Inflation is eating into people's paychecks and savings. This means that millions of people are getting poorer, even as the country heads for its eighth straight year of economic growth.

Real disposable incomes -- the amount of cash a person has after taxes, and adjusted for inflation -- fell by 4.9 percent in July, according to data from the State Statistics Service released this week.

Even though real disposable incomes have grown by 11.2 percent over the past year, inflation of 9.3 percent over the same period has eaten much of those gains.

Some economists expect income growth to recover in the next few months, but prices for goods and services are expected to keep going up.

In Kamchatka, the situation was exacerbated when regional authorities withdrew energy subsidies for businesses, and bakers immediately passed on the extra cost to consumers in early August. Bread prices rose from 14 rubles to 20 rubles on average. The Petropavlovsk- Kamchatsky's social security committee was forced to print 10,000 bread coupons to feed the needy.

But the food vouchers -- which made national television reports -- proved such an embarrassing reminder of post-Soviet food shortages that they were canceled last week and the head of the city's social security committee was reprimanded. The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service is investigating the price hike and is expected to wrap up its report on Sept. 5, Interfax reported Wednesday. For now, pensioners are allowed to buy bread at discounts.

Things are not getting any cheaper elsewhere. Nationally, a basket of essential foodstuffs, including meat, dairy products, sugar, pasta and fruits and vegetables, cost 1,538.30 rubles ($57.50) at the end of July, an increase of 14 percent from the start of the year, according to the State Statistics Service. Dairy products alone are 11.1 percent more expensive than last year, while fruits and vegetables are 11.9 percent more expensive.

July prices for new Russian cars such as the Lada sedan went up by 2.1 percent, while jewelry became 1.4 percent more expensive, compared with the previous month.

Consumer prices have risen 6.9 percent since the beginning of the year. Moscow falls just below the national average, at 6.8 percent, while prices in remote areas like Kamchatka have shot up more than 8 percent. (Prices, however, rose only 0.1 percent during the first 14 days of August and will fall for the rest of the month and for the month as a whole, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry said Wednesday.)

A large part of the reason that living costs are growing is a government campaign to eradicate poverty -- a fiscally sensitive effort that has prompted the state to print billions of extra rubles to pay for higher salaries and pensions, among other things. Extra money, of course, helps fuel inflation.

So while the standard of living has improved for most people, inflation is so high that it is undermining the effort to fight poverty, said Vladimir Pantyushin, an economist with Renaissance Capital. "People can really feel the price movement. It hurts psychologically."

In its crusade against poverty, the government is only targeting the poor and "has a vague idea of what's happening in the middle class," said Yulia Tseplyayeva, head of research at ING Bank.

She said the growth in the cost of living for the middle and upper classes, whose needs and spending habits are different, was well above the average 6.9 percent. "The 6.9 percent figure doesn't really concur with my feelings. I am from a different income group," she said.

Also from a different income group is Alexei Klevetov, who said he was lucky if he managed to bring home $1,500 per month from two jobs. An engineer by training, he is a technician for a mobile phone operator by day and a taxi driver by night.

Ever-increasing gasoline prices loom large in Klevetov's budget. Energy prices also play a key role in fueling inflation, because high fuel costs make it more expensive to get food to store shelves. But Klevetov does not need an economist to tell him that. "Gas prices are rising everyday," he said glumly. "Prices are slowly but surely going up."

Gasoline prices have risen by 7 percent from Jan. 1 to Aug. 14, according to the State Statistics Service. In the first three weeks of August, the average price of gasoline in Moscow soared 5.5 percent, Kommersant reported Wednesday.

Klevetov said he did not feel his financial situation had been improving as the country raked in billions of petrodollars amid record-high global oil prices. Despite working two jobs five days per week, Klevetov is struggling to support his wife and a child. His family lives with his mother-in-law, as property prices spin out of control. "Buying an apartment is unrealistic," he said.

The average price per square meter in Moscow is $3,812, according to Irn.ru, a web site that monitors the real estate market. The average home price in Moscow grew a staggering 50.5 percent in the first half of this year.

Federal authorities have turned to administrative measures to try to rein in the price frenzy. The real estate market is facing scrutiny from the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service. The government has pressured oil companies to cap domestic gasoline prices. Gasoline and oil prices usually reach their peaks in August, during the summer driving and agricultural season.

"The month of August will be decisive in determining whether the targets approved by the monetary authorities will be met," said Yaroslav Lissovolik, an economist at Deutsche UFG. "If the reading is such that there's a pronounced trend toward inflation ... then the pressure on the Central Bank to appreciate the ruble is likely to be quite substantial."

August is also the month when Russia often experiences deflation as family harvests from the dacha contribute to less spending on food.

Some economists said that if deflation did not occur this August, the Central Bank might have to let the ruble appreciate against the dollar to help control inflation. A stronger ruble makes imported goods cheaper for consumers, but it can make Russian exporters less competitive abroad.

President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday urged the Finance Ministry to restrain the appreciation of the ruble, saying a strong currency could be "critical" for the economy.

Another inflation-fighting tool is raising interest rates, since higher rates encourage consumers to save money for the future instead of spending it on goods and driving up prices. But economists said the Central Bank's interest rate hikes for inter-bank loans did not always translate into higher rates throughout the economy.

"The government has few mechanisms to contain inflation," said Vladislav Tikhomirov, an economist at UralSib. Nevertheless, Tikhomirov said, there is a glimmer of hope for beating inflation if oil prices do not rise any higher. World oil prices jumped 40 percent last year, but only 14 percent from January to July. Oil prices now are only slightly higher than they were when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans last year.

Back in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, pensioner Gaidukas, the son of a former gulag prisoner who heads the local branch of Memorial, a human rights group, expressed doubt that the government really wanted to make life better for ordinary people."I have to deny myself a lot of things," he said.

He said he had not left the peninsula for a decade and, like many other pensioners, could not afford dental care. "People are living without teeth," he said. "Putin speaks about demography and extending life expectancy, but [authorities] are doing just the opposite."

Indeed. It may well be Kremlin policy to intentionally reduce the size of the Russian population so as to make it more susceptible to total control by the Kremlin given Russia's increasingly limited resources. Totalitarian dicatorship, like all things, costs money.

Masha Gessen on Neo-Soviet Racism

Time magazine, see above, gave the big picture on Russian racism, while Masha Gessen of the Moscow Times gives a more personal account in her column this week:

I had to get a spravka recently and, when I got it, I stared at it in disbelief. In this case the spravka, or certificate, was a document showing who was registered as residing in my apartment. It listed me and my two children. But instead of looking like a list, as one might expect, it looked like a chart.

The chart had a number of columns with headings, some of which were predictable -- like name and date of birth -- and some a little less intuitive. One heading was "arrived from." For me, it listed my previous address in Moscow; for my daughter, it listed Falmouth, Massachussets, where she was born; and for my son, it said, "born" (which is the definitive bureaucratic answer to the question of where children come from: They are born). Another column was titled, "Ethnicity" (национальность [phonetically, "nationality"]). Opposite my name, it said, "Jewish." My children's "ethnicity" fields were, mercifully, left blank.

I am a returned emigre. When my family left the Soviet Union in 1981 we were all stripped of our Soviet citizenship. Since this was illegal according to Soviet law, in the early 1990s the Supreme Soviet decided to restore justice by giving all emigres their citizenship back. I was one of the few who actually went to a Russian embassy to reclaim their passports.

The application form was just like ones I had filled out as a U.S. citizen applying for a visa to visit the Soviet Union. It asked for my "nationality." I wrote United States -- as I had always done, as a matter of principle, when applying for a visa. Then I remembered all of the people I knew back in the Soviet Union who had lied, cheated and bribed their way to ensuring that their passport did not say "Jewish." I crossed out "United States" and wrote down "Jewish."

"Those bastards!" I thought. They have trapped me into identifying myself as Jewish by nationality, which is absurd. I crossed out "Jewish" and wrote down "United States."

"Coward," I thought. "Liar." I crossed out "United States" and wrote down "Jewish." The embassy issued me a foreign-travel passport, which said nothing about my being Jewish. But in another couple of years I was living in Moscow and I got my internal passport. Back then, they still used the old Soviet passports, which specified the bearer's ethnicity. "Congratulations," a colleague said to me back then. "Now you know you are Jewish."

Nor would I be allowed to forget. A couple of years after I got my new old passport, the magazine where I worked was getting its affairs in order, which involved creating personnel cards for all staff. I was asked to sign a piece of paper that contained all the information from my passport, including my Jewishness. I refused, explaining that my ethnicity had nothing to do with my job. The personnel manager couldn't understand why I was being obstinate. She just kept repeating, "What are you so ashamed of?" and "Don't worry, we won't tell anyone."

I held on to that passport as long as I could: I thought it was an artifact. A couple of years ago, I had to surrender it in exchange for a new Russian passport, which does not list the holder's ethnicity. But the traces of that old passport live on -- in the spravka, and elsewhere.

I raised my eyes from studying the spravka and saw a bulletin board that displayed samples of applications for Russian citizenship and residence permits for foreigners. Question 6 on those forms is "ethnicity"; Question 7 is "religion." The laws on citizenship and residency say nothing about ethnicity or religion. But those old application forms, and the ways of thinking they demonstrate -- just as with the spravka and the personnel form -- never die.

Which is just one of the many ways we know that when the people who rule this country start speaking about the threat of fascism, they are lying. Otherwise, their first priority would be to purge those applications and spravkas.

So Much for Dance Culture in Neo-Soviet Russia



<---
Which
one is
the
Russian

Ballerina?
---->







The
St. Petersburg Times reports that there is so little work for classically trained ballerinas in Russia that they are forced to go abroad and take jobs in Japanese sex clubs, resulting most recently in a stabbing murder.

A 23-year-old Russian dancer, who was stabbed to death by a deranged male client at a cabaret club in Japanese town of Kobe last week, was identified as St. Petersburg resident Anastasia Shelepanova, formerly a student at the respected Vaganova Ballet Academy.

Shelepanova was fatally attacked in the late hours of Aug. 16 by one of the customers at Night Restaurant Academy, a club where she worked as a hostess.

“Officers said that the client, a 47-year-old man, stabbed the Russian dancer in the chest and in the neck with a knife while she was sitting with him,” Japanese newspaper Mainichi Daily News reported. “He then stabbed himself in the chest and stomach.”

The Japanese police have so far withheld the killer’s identity.

The attack was originally seen by some Russian media as part of a vendetta or retaliation for the actions of Russian border guards who accidentally killed a Japanese fisherman during illegal fishing in Russian territorial waters earlier this month. As yet, no connection between the two events has been established by the Japanese law enforcement agencies.

The dancer died on arrival at a Tokyo hospital, while the customer who stabbed Shelepanova survived his self-inflicted wounds and remains in a serious condition. Police have not yet been able to interview him and establish his motives.

The police reported that the attacker was a regular guest at Night Restaurant Academy and witnesses of the incident told them that the customer asked Shelepanova to sit with him before stabbing her.

The St. Petersburg dancer was legally employed by the club. According to Fontanka.ru, Shelepanova was on her third contract in Japan since 2004. She previously worked for a club in Kyoto.

Although Shelepanova did not complete her studies at the Vaganova Academy, her case highlights problems facing many of the country’s classically trained dancers.

The Vaganova’s artistic director, Altynai Asylmuratova, has been calling attention to the lack of work for dancers since taking up her position in January 2000.

Asylmuratova said today’s dancers have limited employment opportunities following the closure of numerous theaters in the post-Soviet era, forcing them to take jobs in clubs.

Japanese authorities offered to cremate Shelepanova’s body but her parents requested that her body be returned to St. Petersburg for a funeral.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Russia Rents itself to China (with Option to Buy?)

As Vladimir Putin's polices fail utterly, Russia's population dwindles and Siberia becomes a desert, it is inevitable that China will take over Russia's Far East. But it is happening even more quickly than La Russophobe imagined, clearly showing that the Kremlin knows oil revenues will not float Russia's boat and cannot stave off the inevitable. First Russia sells part of Siberia as a nuclear dump, then it rents the rest to China, and the Russian people sit idly by and watch it happen, continuing to favor "President" Putin with nosebleed-high approval ratings. The Moscow Times' Yulia Latynina reports and comments:

The Federal Forestry Agency has said it is ready to rent out 1 million hectares of forest to China, and preliminary agreements have been reached with the Tyumen and Sverdlovsk regions on 49-year rental contracts. Russia has not undertaken anything on this scale since selling Alaska to the United States in 1867.

The national media have not covered the deal and there has been no discussion in the State Duma. But 49 years is two generations. Will there be any chance the tenants will leave when the deal expires? Ossetians have been living in Ingushetia's Prigorodny District since 1944. What would happen if we asked them to give it back to the Ingush?

Suppose 49 years from now Russia realizes there are no ethnic Russians living on those 1 million hectares. How would it ask the Chinese to leave? Given the Chinese people's diligence and sheer numbers and the country's ability to think in terms of centuries -- as opposed to the Kremlin's habit of thinking in dollars -- will there be a single Russian left?

Not long ago, Kosovo was Serbian territory. In fact, it was the very heart of Serbia and the site of the Battle of Kosovo of 1389 that is so central to Serbian identity. Kosovo is now demanding independence, based on the presence of an ethnic Albanian majority. How many decades will the Chinese need to claim a right to the Tyumen region and the Urals if they follow the model of Kosovo?

Renting out forests is not the only sign of increasing Russian-Chinese friendship. Others include the construction by the Chinese of a toll highway between Moscow and St. Petersburg. Given that toll roads are generally more about regulating traffic flows than covering construction costs, the construction of the Moscow-St. Petersburg highway can't be considered a commercial project. It is a project to build an 800-kilometer-long Chinatown.

Then there is the credit Rosneft received from China to help it purchase Yuganskneftegaz. The loan is tied to oil supplies and experts have put the cost at about $17 per barrel, plus a small current payment dependent on the price of oil. I'm not suggesting that the money was provided as a bribe. In fact, just the opposite: I am afraid the deal graphically demonstrates how much more effective Chinese officials are at looking out for the country's interests.

Let's not forget the Peace Mission 2005 joint military exercises with China that were held in Tsindao province. The scenario for the exercises involved terrorists seizing control of an island and included long-range Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS bombers pounding the anti-aircraft installations and air bases of the terrorists' accomplices. The West said that the exercises were a rehearsal for capturing Taiwan and that Russia's strategic air capabilities are a threat to Taiwan's allies. Stalin and Marshal Georgy Zhukov would be turning in their graves at the thought of the Russian Air Force helping China seize Taiwan.

The Kremlin is cozying up to China to spite the United States. At first glance, this policy seems strange. However much the Kremlin dislikes the United States, Washington is not after Russian land or witnessing enormous emigration, and is certainly not interested in Russia falling apart and the appearance of, for example, a Chinese-Finnish border and a Caucasian caliphate.

The point is that everything depends on the goals involved. If we are afraid of the United States not as a threat to Russian territorial integrity, but as a country with an unpleasant habit of raising questions about human rights and official corruption, then getting close to China makes sense. Friendship with China is a club that can be used to brandish at the United States when Russia wants to.

But is it really worth turning Siberia into a potential Kosovo just to teach the United States a lesson?

Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.

Annals of Cold War II: Neo-Soviet Russia Restarts the Arms Race

The National Ledger reports that the world is failing to notice as Neo-Soviet Russia begins Nuclear Arms Race II, the natural (and insane) result of its instigation of Cold War II:

Russia
is Not a Friend of the United States

During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union embarked on the most massive military buildups in history. Part of President Reagan's strategy for winning was to entice the Soviets into a competition it could never even hope to win. A communist economy by its very nature is ill-equipped to compete with a free-market, capitalist system whether it's foreign trade or weapons technology. And so, slowly the Soviet economy became a basket case due to the communists desire to exceed America in an enormously expensive arms race.

After the Cold War, with the Soviet threat gone and with Democrat President Bill Clinton in the White House, terms such as "the peace dividend" became commonplace within the Washington Beltway and in the mainstream news media. No longer was the political establishment interested in defense, and the new agenda for the US was domestic.

However, slowly and methodically Russia's steel-eyed leader Vladamir Putin began to rebuild and expand his nation's arsenal and its fighting forces. This new phase in Russia's military buildup has created fear in some quarters in the US that a new arms race exists. Recently the Russians deployed a nuclear ballistic system that their generals made clear could render US anti-missile defense systems ineffective, according to reports in the European news media.

While Americans and Europeans celebrated the Christmas holiday in 2005, the Russian army activated a large number of Topol-M class missiles that can fit nuclear warheads and travel 6,000 miles, while rapidly switching their trajectory in order to neutralize any US- or European-based interception device.

As usual, the news media in the US is so busy bashing the Commander-in-Chief regarding the Iraqi conflict and President Bush's tactics for combating terrorism, that they've failed to report on the Russian advances in weaponry and the accompanying hawkish rhetoric of the Russian military commanders.

In addition, most of the media have chosen to ignore the Russian buildup because the liberal take on the Cold War was that it was a result of a misunderstanding between two superpowers. During the height of the Cold War liberals -- some like Senator John Kerry who are still in power -- were more concerned over how many missiles and weapons we had. That mindset continues and it does no good for the liberal establishment and their media echo chamber to allow the American people to learn that their old enemy is quietly gearing up for a second arms race or worse -- a new Cold War.

While Americans believe that the only problem facing the US is terrorism, one Russian leader, General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of the Russia's missile forces, has mobilized a brand new Topol-M missile battalion, with each missile having a one megaton warhead. One megaton is over 35 times the power of both US bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II.

The Russian general claims his missile system is able to penetrate any missile defense system. He boasts that the Russian missiles are unaffected by electromagnetic blasts used by current US anti-missile systems.

While Russia had disbanded two missile divisions last year to show the US and European Union that they were serious about disarmament, it has recently been discovered that they formed close to 25 new units -- in what's considered the fastest increase of nuclear spending since the days of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

According to the Military.Com, the US Navy carried out tests of an anti-missile interceptor, which can be launched from an Aegis class cruiser in the Pacific Ocean. A warhead from an incoming rocket was completely neutralized and destroyed one hundred miles above sea level. Its success marked the first time an anti-missile defense system succeeded in tests when launched from a warship. While not vocally announced by the Pentagon, experts believe this testing was a result of the Russian buildup.

The debut of the Topol-M and Russia's hawkish bravado mark the fastest expansion of nuclear missiles since the SS-18 and Pershing II technologies appeared during the Reagan Administration. Since that time US-Russia arms control treaty was signed in 1993 at the Kremlin and Russia struggled to fund technology to replace its aging war machine. Their defense budget also withered away due to their depressed economy situation.

With the Russians now enjoying a certain amount of prosperity thanks to its new oil wealth and weapons system sales, their nuclear missile program reemerged. Just last month an almost $2 billion increase from the Kremlin was earmarked for the military and Mr. Putin's popularity also increased as a result. Equally disturbing is that one of the larger states from the old USSR, the Ukraine asked to come back under the former Soviet military shield and they expect to be protected by the Topol-M stationed in the Volga River. Meanwhile, the European Union has denounced Putin's intentions to sell anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, whose president announced his desire to "wipe Israel off the map."

With most of the US intelligence and military resources concentrated on the terrorism war, the Russians have taken advantage of the situation and have once again taken a lead role in international affairs, especially when it comes to nuclear arms and advanced weapons technology.

Jim Kouri, CPP is currently fifth vice-president of the National Association of Chiefs of Police.

Not Content with Jailing Citizens, Neo-Soviet Russia Now Goes After Foreigners

A Step at a Time reports that the Neo-Soviet Kremlin is not satisfied with destroying YUKOS and jailing its Russian CEO in Siberia, as well as attacking his Russian staff and putting his wife and children out on the street. Now, it is moving against foreigners who were associated with the company, putting the final nail in the coffin of foreign investment and bringing Iron Curtain II all the way down. Clearly, "President" Putin knows that his dictatorship cannot survive if subjected to the prying eyes of foreigners, just as did the USSR before him. SAAT points to a Beeb report on a criminal investigation of YUKOS replacement CEO Steven Theede (pictured), who resigned in protest over what he called "sham" tax proceedings against the company following his appointment to guide the company in the wake of former CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky's arrest. SAAT provides a transcript of a Beeb interview with Theede as follows:

THEEDE: We're just appalled at these accusations. First of all, they announced last Thursday that they were going to initiate an investigation into our international assets. The fact of the matter is that company management did set up a foundation in early 2005 to protect our international assets from expropriation by the Russian Federation. And that came on the heels of the expropriation of our largest Russian asset Yukosneftegaz, in late 2004, and it was after that that we concluded there was absolutely nothing we could do to save our Russian assets if the Russian authorities wanted to take them. But we felt we had a strong fiduciary responsibility to take steps to protect the assets that we could protect, and that was our international assets. And so using a long known technique in the Netherlands, we set up a foundation to protect these assets from unfriendly hands.

BBC: What about the criminal case that's actually being brought against you? Are you going to fight it, or are you simply going to ignore it?

THEEDE: We're not going to sit on our hands. This is just an amazing move that the Russian authorities have taken, to open an investigation against individuals who are not residents of Russia. They are trying to impose their will on those of us who have spent the last two years doing nothing but trying to do the right thing in protecting the interests of the company. And it brings up, I think, an important point of what I've discovered in the time I've been in Russia, and that is that even though my principles have always been to always do the right thing, time after time, but in Russia today the key to success is more doing what the authorities want you to do rather than doing the right thing.

BBC: Do you feel extremely bruised by this whole process?

THEEDE: I just feel angry about this whole process. What complicates it for me personally is I see things that go on in Russia that would be considered illegal in any country in the West, and the results of these illegal activities are then in essence exported to Western countries and the actions that were taken in Russia seem to be forgiven and ignored and overlooked. It's just creating a Russia that is becoming more and more confident that they don't need to comply with Western standards in order to be accepted and get along in the West. And I think it's creating a much harder Russia, I think it's creating a Russia that's going to be increasingly more difficult to deal with - where does it all stop?

BBC: You resigned last month as chief executive of Yukos. What do you see your role being now?

THEEDE: Well, I resigned all of my responsibilities with Yukos as president as well as on the board of directors of Yukos Oil Company. I want my role to be reduced substantially to the point where I can put the Yukos saga behind me and move on, with my life. It would appear that the Russian authorities are going to make it difficult for me to do that, at least for a while. The fact that they've announced an investigation may or may not allow them to invoke certain extradition treaties that are in place with a number of European countries. I don't know how serious a threat extradition might be - just my motto here is going to be for a while better safe than sorry, so my travels will be restricted mainly just to the UK and the US. Outside of that I will probably be very. very careful.

The only question now is: Who's next? If Russia will try to prosecute a wealthy foreign businessman, what about heads of NGOs that dare to question the Kremlin's human rights record? How long before we see the barbed wire of the gulags rise again to darken Russia's somber skies?

The Moscow Times has more:

Former Yukos president Steven Theede on Thursday decried a Russian criminal investigation against him and three other foreign executives as "pressure and intimidation" aimed at disrupting the $1.5 billion sale of Yukos' stake in the Mazeikiu refinery in Lithuania.

"I think this is an attempt to frustrate the sale of Mazeikiu Nafta," he said by telephone from London. "This is pressure and intimidation. And the reason it seems significant is that it is [against] non-Russian citizens who are not living in Russia and running an organization that is not Russian."

The Prosecutor General's Office said it was investigating whether $10 billion worth of Yukos assets, including its foreign holdings, were transferred out of the company via a Dutch-registered foundation. It said Theede, former Yukos CFO Bruce Misamore, the company's former legal counsel David Godfrey and Tim Osborne, director of Yukos majority shareholder GML, had appointed themselves directors of the foundation in April 2005 and then transferred foreign assets owned by a Yukos subsidiary into it.

Theede said Tuesday that the foundation had been set up as a way of protecting its foreign holdings, including Mazeikiu, from attack by the Russian state after the management team had exhausted its attempts to reach an amicable agreement. "The foundation was created ... for the benefit of the legitimate creditors of the company," he said.

The foundation has voting rights over assets still owned by Yukos' foreign subsidiaries -- in Mazeikiu Nafta and Slovakian pipeline operator Transpetrol -- that have a combined value of less than $2 billion, far less than $10 billion, Theede said.

"All companies in the foundation are still 100 percent owned ultimately by Yukos Finance," he said, referring to Yukos' Dutch-based subsidiary.

Following a ruling by a New York bankruptcy court, 100 percent of the proceeds from the sale of Mazeikiu and Transpetrol by Yukos Finance are to be transferred to Dutch court-appointed bailiffs and disbursed to Yukos' foreign creditors, GML's Moravel and state-controlled oil firm Rosneft.

"The whole process is really quite transparent," Theede said. " We would be insane to play games when we're being watched by everybody."

He noted that the prosecutors' statement had come just hours after a Dutch court declined to grant Yukos' Russian receiver Eduard Rebgun the right to prevent the sale of the company's foreign assets.

Theede stepped down as Yukos president ahead of a creditors vote last month to liquidate the company, but remained head of Yukos Finance.

Poland's PKN Orlen agreed to buy Yukos' 53 percent stake in Mazeikiu in May. Earlier this month, Russia shut down the pipeline supplying Mazeikiu after a small oil spill in what many have seen as an attempt to reverse the sale.

Theede said Thursday that Orlen had not transferred its payment for the refinery, but had given no indication it wanted to pull out of the deal as a result of the pressure. The probe looks like another tactic to impede the sale as executives could face arrest if they travel, Theede said.

The Houston Chronicle has more detail.


Masha Lipman on the "Russian Revival"

The Carnegie Center's Masha Lipman offers the following analysis of the so-called "Russian Revival" under "President" Vladimir Putin. All sham and illusion rather than substance (eerily like the way Maria Sharapova plays tennis), Russia's "revival" is far more harmful than a depression since it hides reform and delays its onset until it can do no good. As is unfortunately too often the case, Carnegie lacks the courage to carry its basic truths fully through, so LR endeavors to pick up the slack with running commentary. From time to time, Masha sounds discomfitingly like a mommy talking to her wayward little boy. Wake up and smell the full-grown dictator, Mashenka!

Russia’s national revival and new assertiveness under President Vladimir Putin is not really homemade but reflects highly auspicious international conditions. Oil and gas prices are sky high, the United States is overwhelmed by serious problems in Iraq and the Middle East, and the West is divided about how it should deal with Russia.

Putin’s administration has been keen to take advantage of this favourable environment. Yet, although some of the Kremlin’s moves seem clear and reasonable, others can scarcely be described as rational or forward-looking.

For example, Russia’s desire to take ownership stakes in Europe’s gas distribution markets makes perfect sense and is fully legitimate given Russia’s energy assets and pipeline capacity. Likewise, Russia’s effort to expand its influence in the energy-rich countries of Central Asia is aimed at consolidating Russia’s stature as a major energy supplier. Asserting itself as a major power outside the Western realm, Russia has boosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which includes China and most Central Asian countries. Indeed, Russia is increasingly attaching ever greater significance to its relations with China, something of a strategic shift in foreign policy, even if it is not yet clear how close Russia wants to get to China.

But bullying Georgia and Moldova, demonstrating support for Hamas, or indulging North Korea do not seem to be guided by any strategic sense of Russia’s far-reaching interests. They seem guided by pure and simple spite. Russia’s heavy-handed pressure on Georgia and its support of secessionist movements in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two unrecognised republics within Georgia, inflames passions and risks destabilising the already tense Northern Caucasus. Should instability ignite into open warfare, Russia will find it impossible to avoid the consequences.

Of course, Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili may at times be thoughtless and arrogant. But if Russia’s policy toward him lets events in Georgia get out of control, Russia will be held accountable. Because Russia claims the status of a world power, it is expected to show restraint and responsibility.

But the urge to project strength for the mere sake of doing so now seems overwhelming for the Kremlin. This urge stems from a desire to make up for the years of Russia’s humiliation after the USSR collapsed, years when the West contemptuously disregarded Russia’s views and interests.

This lingering resentment may explain Putin’s somewhat uncivil behaviour and dubious jokes when dealing with his Western counterparts. It may also have been behind Russia’s irrational decision to renege on its promise to give Poland the files that document the massacre of thousands of Polish officers on Stalin’s orders in the forest at Katyn at the outbreak of WWII. What possible benefits can Russia gain by breaking this pledge? The motive seems to be brutally simple: “Precisely because you want it, we won’t deliver. We can do what we like because we’re strong again.” LR: Here's the benefit. Russia can keep from opening old wounds it can't face, and Putin can avoid undermining his effort to rehabilitate Stalin and create a Neo-Soviet Union. Katyn is one of the lowest moments in human history, and if publicized there is nothing even the greatest Soviet propagandists could do to rationalize it.

But this renewed vigour is too fresh for Russia to feel truly confident. Putin’s irresistible urge to remind everyone that Russia has recovered its strength suggests underlying insecurity. In an episode recently reported by The New York Times, at one of Putin’s informal meetings with Bush, Putin showed the US president his Labrador and said, “Bigger, tougher, stronger, faster, meaner than Barney” (Bush’s dog). LR: Remember my dog joke from back in May? LR, always ahead of the curve! Though Putin barely implied that the dog’s superiority indicates Russia’s domination over the US, his remark appears to be in line with his general message: don’t you ever dare to doubt our high status.

Russia is by no means seeking to isolate itself. Russia needs America and the West in order to realise its ambitious initiative to establish international centres of uranium enrichment, and it needs Western markets, which are the largest consumers of Russia’s gas and oil. Moreover, it is in the West that the rich and powerful Russian elite likes to travel, go shopping, and send their kids to school. LR: If that's true, why is Russia giving aid to arch American foes like Venezuela, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah? Why did it pass U.S. military secrets to Iran in wartime? Isn't minimizing Western influence key to Putin's dictatorship? The Carnegie Center is too often guilty of wishful thinking. Maybe it's not in Russia's interest to alienate the West, but that has never stopped Russia from undertaking self-destructive behavior before. After all, if Russia really wanted to be friends, would it have elected a proud KGB spy president?

But Russia’s muscle-flexing behaviour leaves Western leaders perplexed and wary, which seems a dubious way for the Kremlin to secure Russia’s new stature. Contentious foreign policy makes contacts uneasy and agreements difficult to reach. It damages the trust needed for stronger trade relations. As Russia’s conflict with Ukraine in early January over gas prices demonstrated, when Russia plays rough, the West grows apprehensive and suspicious rather than more amenable. LR: Actually, alienating the West is only a problem for Russia if the result is a concerted effort to undermine Putin's power. To the extent, meanwhile, that it terrifies domestic opposition, including foreign NGOs, it allows Putin to draw down the Iron Curtain. Clearly, it's not in Russia's best interests as a nation, but who says Putin (or any Russian leader) ever has those interests in mind?

What will happen should crude strength and hard language prove inadequate to the task of insuring Russian national interests? No one can say, but Russia’s history in this regard is not a source of hope. LR: Actually, La Russophobe can quite easily say. What will happen is that Russia will deteriorate into "Zaire with permafrost" and soon Russia as we know it will cease to exist.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Another Sign of the Coming Economic Apocalypse in Neo-Soviet Russia: Personal Incomes Plummet

Kommersant reports that even when personal incomes appear to be rising year-on-year, they can still be seen to be diminishing when a broader perspective is taken. It also highlights the fact that the Kremlin's statistics are fundamentally unreliable.

Rosstat released data yesterday that indicate Russians' nominal incomes fell unexpectedly by 2.7 percent on average in June, for the first time since 1997. Real incomes fell 4.9 percent. This points out that salaries cannot rise forever, even when oil prices are high. The average monthly income in Russia in June 2006 was 9870 rubles ($350), 24.1 percent more than a year ago. The average nominal salary a month later was 11,220 rubles ($400), 28.6 percent higher than a year ago. Real incomes, after mandatory payments and taking inflation into account, grew 11.2 percent in a year.

Kommersant calculates that, taking season fluctuations into account, real incomes fell in July in comparison with July 1997. Real incomes in July have not fallen since 1998. Income traditionally fluctuates seasonally. It grows sharply at the end of the year, falls sharply in January, followed by smaller decreases in May and August. A fall in incomes in July has not been noted in recent years.

Some analysts expressed doubts about the data from the Russian federal statistics agency. The mistake would be large, if it exists. Lilia Ovcharova, director of scientific programs at the Independent Institute of Social Policy. She notes that incomes, both real and nominal, grew very rapidly in the first half of the year, creating a “base effect,” when very high salaries are compared. Furthermore, many workers paid from the federal budget have been able to afford vacations for the first time. Rosstat statistics show that budgeted employees' incomes are growing faster than the average. It is also possible that Rostat's methodology is responsible for the fall. Rosstat reflects for rubles received from selling dollars as growth in income. In July, those sales amounted to about 1.4 trillion rubles ($52 billion), indicating that the public is rapidly eliminating its stores of foreign currency. But a fall in the exchange of hard currency for vacation purposes could be reflected in the Rosstat statistics as a fall in incomes. Data on currency sales in July will be available only in September.

Was Moscow Market Blast Racism, Terrorism, Kremlinism or Gangsterism?

When seeking to explain the recent bomb blast in a crowded Moscow marketplace, killing at least 10 and injuring dozens of others, four possible theories arise:

1. Racism
(the marketplace was full of dark-skinned vendors)
2. Terrorism
(the marketplace is an ideal target for Chechen revenge attacks)
3. Gangsterism
(the markets are controlled by the forces of organized crime)
4. Kremlinism
(the Kremlin might act to whip up hysteria and support crackdowns)

The initial thoughts were along the lines of choice #3, but now the Turkish Press reports that #1 is being explored as well. The main point being, of course, that the mere fact that all four are 0bviously possible shows just how uncivilized Russia really is.

A blast at a crowded Moscow market that killed 10 people and wounded dozens is being investigated as a possible racist attack, the Moscow prosecutor's office said.

Monday's blast was initially thought to have grown out of a dispute between criminal groups, but the city prosecutor now considers a racist attack to be "basically the main version," a spokeswoman for the prosecutor told AFP.

Five of the 10 people killed at the market, known as "Eurasia," were Chinese nationals and one was a Vietnamese citizen. Investigators are still identifying the others.

Several Russian newspapers suggested the attack was motivated by racism.

Vremya Novostei said that one of the two suspects detained on Monday was a member of a "nationalist or fascist group" and that explosives had been found at the home of one of the suspects, without citing sources.

Business daily Kommersant quoted an anonymous source in the Federal Security Service (FSB) as saying that the suspects were being questioned by a branch of the service devoted to investigating extremism and terrorism.

An informed source in Moscow law-enforcement was quoted by ITAR-TASS late Monday as saying that the suspects were two young men who belonged to a far-right nationalist group.

Russian Prosecutor General Yury Chaika said Tuesday that a criminal dispute and terrorism were the most probable versions of events being analysed by investigators.

"At the present moment these versions are the main ones. Two people have been detained in the case," Chaika said, speaking during a visit to the Tajik capital of Dushanbe.

UPDATE: Now the Moscow Times reports the arrest of racist ultranationalists. It appears the bombing was in fact racially motivated.

Kasparov Blasts Russia Again

Writing in the Wall Street Journal on August 2nd, Russian presidential contender Gary Kasparov has delivered another scalding attack on the corporatist Kremlin:

Hugo Chávez was in Russia to seal an arms deal with the Kremlin. The bombastic Mr. Chávez and the stealthy Vladimir Putin share a fondness for autocracy and for leveraging their natural resources as political weapons. The arms Mr. Chávez is buying are destined to be used against his own people and by terrorist guerillas in Colombia tacitly supported by Venezuela. Mr. Putin isn't the only one who understands that instability leads to higher oil prices.

I am horrified as I watch my country turn into an oil-and-gas empire. From struggling workers in Vladivostok to top-notch lawyers in Moscow, we are a people proud of our intellectual traditions. Russia is a country of great literature and scientific accomplishments. It should not be our destiny to become another Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, to quite literally fuel the achievements of other nations while we lose ground.

The G-8 summit in St. Petersburg is over. It will be remembered more for what the microphones caught by accident than for what was spoken into them on purpose. (Coincidentally, the guilty microphone was left on by none other than Mr. Putin.) With the war in the Middle East dominating headlines, St. Petersburg was little reported in the West. Here in Russia we were treated to hours of Mr. Putin on TV smiling next to the leaders of the free world. The state-controlled media used such pictures as proof of Russia's membership of the league of industrialized democracies, a membership that is otherwise inexplicable. Russia may not have much industry or democracy left, but we do have massive amounts of oil and gas plus other natural resources. When combined with our nuclear weapons, these resources are sufficient to buy entry into the G-8 despite Mr. Putin's transformation of Russia back into a one-party dictatorship. This newfound international sway is also having serious repercussions inside my country.

With every PR success on the international front the Putin administration's rhetoric becomes increasingly militant on the national level. They still watch their tongues on the outside but hardly bother to disguise their dictatorial designs here. You can't find a better definition of "oligarchy" than what we have today in the Kremlin.

Top Putin officials run some of the largest corporations in the country. Imagine your secretary of defense working simultaneously as chairman of the board of Exxon, say, and you might wonder if there's a Russian term for "conflict of interest." First Putin's bunch took the law into their own hands, and then they put the state coffers into their pockets.

There is more to the article but unfortunately it appears to be locked behind the WSJ database. If anyone knows where
La Russophobe can get the rest of it, please let her know.

The Caucus War: August Update

The idea that anything like peace or order has arrived in the Caucus regions is pure propaganda, as a recent chronology of events makes cleare (remember, the Kremlin has a total crackdown on reporters in the region in place, so this is only the tip of the iceberg, what manages to squeak through the cracks):

Sunday August 6: Five telephone transmitting towers blown up by Chechen rebels

Thursday August 10: Home of federal prosecutor attacked in Ingushetia, one killed

Monday August 14: Rebels attack military checkpoint on federal highway in Ingushetia

Tuesday August 15: Russians respond to Chechen problem with . . . text messages.

Wednesday August 16: Solider killed as military convoy attacked in Igushetia.

Thursday August 17: Chechens claim Kremlin is making "Potemkin Withdrawal"

Monday August 21: Bomb explodes in Moscow marketplace, killing 10.

Tuesday August 22: Bomb destroys oil pipeline in Ingushetia.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Yet Another Russian Plane Drops out of the Sky

The Associated Press reports that yet another Russian plane has dropped out of the sky with more than 100 passengers on board. The same model, TU-154, made an emergency landing in Irkutsk only weeks ago, and follows on the heels of the crash of an A-310 in Irkutsk days before that with 124 lives lost.

MOSCOW (AP) -- A Russian passenger jet with 171 people aboard crashed in Ukraine on Tuesday after sending a distress signal, emergency officials said.

The Pulkovo airlines Tupolev 154, en route from the Russian Black Sea resort of Anapa to St. Petersburg, disappeared from radar screens over Ukraine, Emergency Situations Ministry spokeswoman Yulia Stadnikova said.

Minutes later, the ministry said wreckage from the plane was found on the ground.

Another ministry spokesman, Irina Andriyanova, said that 30 bodies had been found. She said there were 171 people aboard: 160 passengers, including six children, and 11 crew members.

The plane disappeared from radar screens two minutes after the crew sent an SOS signal, Stadnikova said.

RIA-Novosti news agency reported that the wreckage was found near the Ukrainian city of Donetsk and said rescuers were at the site.

Pulkovo airlines, among Russia's largest carriers, is based in St. Petersburg.

It was the third major plane crash in the region this year, and came less than two months after at least 124 people died when an Airbus A-310 of the Russian carrier S7 skidded off a runway and burst into flames on July 9 in the Siberian city of Irkutsk.

On May 3, an A-320 of the Armenian airline Armavia crashed into the Black Sea while trying to land in the Russian resort city of Sochi in rough weather, killing all 113 people aboard.

Russian-made Tu-154s are widely used by Russian airlines for many regional flights.

PBS Exposes the Horrors of Doing "Business" in Xenophobic, Neo-Soviet Russia

The PBS radio program "All Things Considered" has an audio program detailing the condition of the Neo-Soviet business climate for foreigners. Listen here. The overview of the program states: "In post-Communist Russia, foreigners who try to run their own small businesses face many challenges. Once an inviting destination for American entrepreneurs, Russia has proved to be a tough place to do business. It is an environment rife with government corruption, crooked business partners and gangsters."

Richard Lourie Drops a Clanger


La Russophobe is a big fan of Moscow Times columnist Richard Lourie, but he dropped a major clanger in his most recent column, about KGB rule of Russia. Lourie states:

Andropov did not rule long enough to disappoint the high expectations many had of him. He did, however, rule long enough to establish the precedent and prototype of the intelligence chief turned national leader that President Vladimir Putin is developing further today. (There's nothing exclusively Russian about this: former U.S. President George H. W. Bush had, among his many credentials, the title of former head of the CIA.)
The analogy to George H. W. Bush (the current president's father) is suprisingly bogus, purely a red herring, and the reasons should be obvious to all. Nevertheless, let's enumerate them:

1. Totally unlike Bush, both Putin and Andropov came up through the ranks of the secret police. They both had secret resumes and might have committed any number of crimes in defense of the motherland. They spent years being inculcated with ideology. Bush merely served, very briefly, in an essentially adminstrative position. His resume is an open book.

2. Bush, unlike either Putin or Andropov, was first elected to office as vice president, and spent eight years in the crucible of public scrutiny before becoming president. When he became president, it was by means of a genuinely free election contested by a serious democratic rival. And during that election, the question of Bush's role in the CIA was repeatedly raised and challenged. Nothing like that has happened in regard to either Andropov or Putin; Russia has never had one genuine election in its history.

3. Even if Bush had been a trained CIA killer, he came to power only after two centuries of democratic governance, allowing the country to establish a long history of civil liberties and placing it in a far better position to withstand any possible encroachments upon civil liberties he might have pursued. The country was also in a far stronger economic and geopolitical position to absorb the punishment he might have handed out than Russia is today.

4. It's impossible to point to anything done by Bush while in office which could be viewed as an attempt to impose the values of the secret police upon the country. Indeed, a far better case can be made against his son in this regard than against him. By contrast, books are needed to fully enumerate all the encroachments made by Putin.

5. By far most important, say what you will about it nobody can accuse the American CIA of building gulags in America, blowing up churches (with the priests still in them) and killing more Americans than all its foreign enemies combined. Nobody can say that, as a direct result of such activity, the American population is now on the verge of extinction. But you can (indeed, you must) say that about the KGB, meaning that it's not even remotely comparable to be a CIA president of America and a KGB president of Russia. Electing a CIA spy president might be viewed as dangerous, but it can't possibly be viewed as a knowing embrace of a totally failed past.

Maybe Lourie was just following a common course among Russia-watchers, seeking to throw a bone to the Russians in order to get them to accept his critique more easily, like hiding a child's medicine inside a piece of candy. La Russophobe has always thought that is why the Moscow Times published the insane drivel of Chris Floyd, and that is why she was heartened by the MT's termination of that odious screed. It's disgustingly patronizing to view Russians as children who can't handle the truth full-on; if that's really what they are, they are beyond all hope. But even if you subscribe that tortured logic, statements of this kind must be monitored carefully, as they can easily become propaganda fodder for those in Russia who wish to rationalize KGB rule.

Annals of Cold War II: Russia Declares War on NHL

Russia appears to have gone stark raving mad with self-destructive, hate-mongering Cold War frenzy, now accusing the U.S. of "sports terrorism." Can you imagine how Dubrovkized, Beslanized Russia would react if America used a word like "terrorism" to describe Russian athletic activities? This is classic Sovietspeak, unsettling in the extrme. Reuters reports:

Russia has declared an all-out war on the National Hockey League (NHL), accusing the North Americans of stealing its best players.

Russian hockey officials were up in arms after several top players, including teenage prodigy Evgeni Malkin, the Pittsburgh Penguins' number one pick in 2004, walked out on their contracts with Russian clubs to pursue a career in the NHL.

The Malkin case has been front-page news on both sides of the Atlantic since the young Russian secretly left his club Metallurg Magnitogorsk at Helsinki airport earlier this month.

Malkin, considered the best player in the world outside the NHL, vanished for several days before resurfacing in the United States last week and declaring his wish to play for Pittsburgh.

"This is pure sports terrorism," Metallurg general director Gennady Velichkin told Reuters following the sudden disappearance of his best player.

Velichkin said his club had already hired an American lawyer to look after their interests. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl and Russian champions AK Bars Kazan said they also planned legal action against NHL clubs.

Lokomotiv are seeking compensation from the Edmonton Oilers and the Phoenix Coyotes

after losing their best forwards, Alexei Mikhnov and Andrei Taratukhin, while Kazan also accuse Phoenix of poaching their top player, Enver Lisin.

Russian clubs received backing from the country's hockey chief Vladislav Tretyak and Sports Minister Vyacheslav Fetisov.

DISGRACEFUL OFFER

"We can't just sit around and do nothing while the NHL takes our best players," Tretyak told local media.

But the NHL said it would not negotiate compensation packages with any Russian club after the European nation refused to sign a transfer agreement with the North American league.

Russia remains the only major hockey power not to join the deal, approved by the International Ice Hockey Federation in 2005.

Under the agreement Metallurg would have received a basic $200,000 fee for Malkin. The Russian club reportedly wanted at least 10 times more.

Tretyak said the Malkin case was the main reason behind their decision not to sign the agreement while the Metallurg boss slammed the offer as "disgraceful."

Malkin has faxed a letter to Metallurg, asking them to annul his contract, which he said he had signed under pressure.

Velichkin denying putting any pressure on Malkin.

"He talks about pressure. What pressure?" Velichkin said.

"You can ask militia (Russian police) about pressure. Pressure is when they bang your head against a wall radiator.

"As far as the letter he faxed to us, it wasn't written by Malkin so I think it's a pure fabrication. I just threw it in the garbage can."

Asked about the sum he was seeking for Malkin, Velichkin said: "Before his disappearance I was asking for $2 million from Pittsburgh but now I want more, a lot more."

No Matter What Kind of Court, Sharapova is a Loser

The Moscow News reports that Maria Sharapova's losing ways are not confined to the tennis court, but persist in courts of law as well. In classic Soviet fashion, she tries to censor a documentary about her life, and when she fails she claims she didn't really care about it anyway.

A federal judge ruled against tennis star Maria Sharapova on Wednesday, saying a Florida production company was entitled to market a documentary on her despite her agents’ attempts to halt distribution, AP reports.

U.S. District Judge Donald Middlebrooks said Byzantium Productions Inc. was lawful in its production of two films, “Anna’s Army” and “Russian Women’s Tennis.” The documentaries did not violate trademark laws, the judge found.

Jonathan Koch, a Tampa attorney representing Sharapova, said he initially believed there was potential for confusion among consumers that the films were official documentaries. As the litigation progressed, though, he said he changed his mind.

“As we investigated and as the controversy developed we concluded that the commercial significance of the matter did not justify being involved in a lawsuit,” Koch said.

The decision means Byzantium, a two-man operation in West Palm Beach, can move forward with plans to distribute its work in Japan and elsewhere, though the filmmakers said the damage had already been done.

“We’re thrilled to have this all over with. It’s been a long battle — they destroyed our business,” said Peter Geisler, the company’s vice president. “This should allow distribution to continue, but my guess is that it’s most likely too late.”

In addition to footage of Sharapova, the films include interviews with Martina Navratilova, Billie Jean King, Chris Evert and others.

IMG, the agency that represents Sharapova and her company, SW19 Inc., had said Byzantium illegally used the tennis player’s identity and infringed on her company’s trademark and legal rights, among other claims. The agency threatened legal action.

Martin Reeder, a Jupiter, Fla.-based attorney for Byzantium, said those threats kept the film from further distribution.
“It’s still sitting in warehouses,” he said.

Sharapova was the first Russian to win the Wimbledon title. She was born in Russia but now lives in Florida.

Turkey Elbows Russia Out of the Energy Picture

Sharp & Sound points to an fascinating piece on Turkey by Stratfor, which indicates that the world has woken up to the instability and unreliability of Russia and is looking for, and finding, substitute energy conduits, including Turkey. Click through on the link to see a good regional map.

Turkey: An Emerging Global Energy Hub

August 15, 2006 14 37 GMT

Summary

Former Soviet Union countries are producing more oil than ever, with newer energy producers such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan joining Russia in exporting large amounts of oil to the global market. The question now is how to transport the expanding oil production. Russia seems the logical choice, but Kremlin politics have gotten in the way of Russian infrastructure expansion. As a result, investors seeking to create infrastructure that will allow oil to be transported to market from the Middle East and the former Soviet Union are pushing Turkey to become a major global oil hub.

Analysis

Countries within the former Soviet Union (FSU) are producing more oil than ever before, with newer energy producers such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan joining Russia in exporting large amounts of oil to the global market. Routes to get that oil to market, however, are limited -- mostly passing through Russia. In light of increasingly unstable Russian energy policies and the country's decaying infrastructure, investors are looking to a new hub for oil export and refining: Turkey.

After a sharp decline in oil production following the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia is now the world's second-largest oil producer, behind Saudi Arabia. The former Soviet state of Kazakhstan is beginning to see its potential as a major energy producer after years of foreign investment, and has increased its oil production to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd).

The Kazakh government is planning to more than double oil production within the next nine years, to 3.5 million bpd. Oil production in Azerbaijan, another former Soviet state, has more than doubled since 2004, increasing from less than 300,000 bpd to more than 600,000 bpd in 2006, and it is expected to further increase to more than 900,000 bpd in 2007.

The question is how to get all this oil to market. The logical answer -- especially for the European market -- is through Russian infrastructure. Russia, however, has allowed politics to scare away those looking to invest in or finance new and expanded infrastructure. Russian state-owned pipeline company Transneft has exclusive jurisdiction over any crude oil -- except through one line, the Caspian Pipeline -- exported via pipeline from Russia. The Transneft system, however, is highly bottlenecked and the existing infrastructure is in decay. This leaves the rest of the oil to be shipped along more costly rail and river routes.

Beyond Transneft's inefficiencies, the Russian government has not helped to expand oil transit capacity. Its state-owned oil, natural gas and pipeline monopolies -- Rosneft, Gazprom and Transneft -- have driven away investments by refusing to grant control proportionate to the financing private investors might provide, as well as arbitrarily changing the fees for transporting supplies. The monopolies also are increasing their influence in Russia and on Russian policy by using energy to impact foreign policy with its neighbors. The natural gas price dispute with Ukraine, in which Russia cut supplies transported to Europe via Ukraine, is a prime example.

This also was seen when Kazakhstan's state-owned KazMunaiGaz proposed buying a majority stake in Lithuania's oil complex, Mazeikiu Nafta, which was owned by bankrupt Russian oil firm Yukos. Kazakhstan supplied roughly 10 percent of the complex's oil via a pipeline through Russia. Upon KazMunaiGaz's proposed purchase, Transneft revoked permission for Kazakh oil to be pumped through its pipeline to Lithuania. Rosneft then put in its bid for the complex, though Lithuania ended up sealing the deal with Poland's PKN Orlen.

Foreign investors, though, are not hinging the future of energy supplies on Russia, and have found a new hub to move the increased oil supply to market: Turkey. The country's geographical position makes it ideal for moving oil to market from many locations, as Turkey sits between the oil-producing Middle East, the former Soviet region and a major oil market, Europe. Turkey also has major access to the important transport routes of the Black and Mediterranean seas. The problem has been that Turkey's main waterways -- the Bosporus and Dardanelles Strait -- have been major choke points, while no real infrastructure has been in place for exports.

The new Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline from Azerbaijan's oil hub on the Caspian to Turkey's large port on the Mediterranean opened in June, providing an alternative for Azerbaijan to move its oil. The pipeline also has become an alternative for Kazakhstan, which will provide half the oil when the BTC meets its full throughput capacity of 1 million bpd by 2008. The BTC offers one of the first large pipelines from a former Soviet state that does not run through Russia.

Another oil transport route already in place is a pipeline from Iraq, with a capacity of 1.6 million bpd. Since the beginning of the Iraq war, oil flows through the pipeline have been erratic, though it is just a matter of time before it comes back online. In March 2004, Iraq also submitted a plan for northern Iraqi Kirkuk oil to be exported via Ceyhan, the first such proposal in three years.

Offering even more promise for Turkey's goal of becoming a major energy hub are the numerous infrastructure projects planned in the country. The proposed projects include not only pipelines to transport oil from the Middle East or former Soviet Union to market, but refineries as well, which would allow a ready-to-use product to hit the market -- rather than comparatively high-bulk, low-value unrefined crude oil.

The total capacity of planned refineries to be built in Turkey would double its refining capabilities, adding another 900,000 bpd in refining in the next few years. Three refineries are planned at the BTC's endpoint of Ceyhan -- to be built by Turkey's Petrol Ofisi and Cakik Energy, Italy's ENI and the Indian Oil Co. KazMunaiGaz said Aug. 14 it also is looking to build a refinery in Turkey.

A key indicator of increasing investor rejection of Russia in favor of Turkey is the plan by privately owned LUKoil, Russia's second-largest oil company, to build a refinery in Turkey, specifically in the Black Sea city of Zonguldak. Although Russia is in dire need of energy infrastructure, Turkey offers a more secure option -- both politically and financially -- for transport and refining.

LUKoil also announced plans in early August to build a pipeline from the planned refinery in Zonguldak to the Turkish port of Izmit on the Sea of Marmara. The port of Izmit allows oil transport to completely bypass the Bosporus and pass through the less-congested Dardanelles Strait to the Mediterranean.

Another planned oil transport alternative is the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline traveling south from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Italy's Eni and Turkey's Calik Energy finally inked their deal on the 1 million bpd pipeline in June. Once built, it will allow oil exporters all over the Black Sea to transport their supplies to Ceyhan's planned refineries, as well as Turkey's deep-water port on the Mediterranean.

With the planned Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline, the new BTC pipeline and three planned refineries, Ceyhan is fit to become a major global oil hub. Moreover, with the LUKoil refinery and pipeline, Turkey itself is set to cash in on the growing oil production of its neighbors.

Turkey is becoming a crossroads between Middle East and FSU oil producers and consumers in Europe and beyond. As a result of this evolution, Turkey and its issues -- the Kurds and a desired EU membership -- are becoming more important to those outside of the country.